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Figure 1. Current food security conditions   FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2. Most like food security scenario: Sep. 2007 - Feb. 2008 FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3. Worst case food security scenario: Sep. 2007 - Feb. 2008 FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Executive Summary

• The current food security situation points to significant improvements among northwestern pastoralists in contrast to modest improvements for northern and eastern pastoralists, following mediocre short rains. While overall national crop prospects are good, significant crop losses have occurred in the southeastern lowlands and household food stocks there are diminishing rapidly.
• In the most likely scenario, the food security of pastoralists and marginal agricultural households will be determined by the outcome of the short-rains season. If the forecast holds and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to rise, then the food security of both pastoralists and crop farmers will improve.
• In the worst case scenario, the expected La Nina event over eastern Kenya is not mitigated by rising SSTs, and the food security of farmers in the southeast and pastoralists in the north and east could deteriorate precariously and trigger a livelihood crisis. Poor rains will also precipitate conflict and enhance the spread of livestock diseases as animals cluster and compete for resources.

Current Food Security Situation

Overall, national food security has improved significantly across livelihoods at the conclusion of the long-rains season, which extended uncharacteristically into September in several areas. Although the season was fairly poor in the northeastern pastoral and southeastern and coastal lowlands, a good short-rains season in 2006 mitigated the impacts of the poor season on household food security. Unfortunately, elaborate livelihood interventions intended to consolidate the recovery process while mitigating the mediocre season in the northeast have not been widely implemented, slowing down the recovery.

Livestock birthings have increased as has milk availability in the pastoral livelihood. The adverse impacts of the Rift Valley Fever, including loss in productivity and market outlets, have ended. While rates of malnutrition have been on a consistent downward trend since April 2006, rates remain higher than the WHO emergency threshold in some parts of Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit districts. Pastoral areas in the northeast that received poor long rains will now begin to show signs of stress exhibited by increased migrations toward western districts and across into Somalia and Ethiopia. Debilitating livestock raiding has characterized most of 2008, compromising the recovery of pastoralists in the conflict epicenters.

Mid-season estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) point to above normal national output, in addition to favorable domestic supply from previous harvests. Unfortunately, the long rains have been excessive in key growing areas in the western and Rift Valley ‘grain-baskets’ that are reporting significant pre- and post-harvest losses of maize, beans and wheat. Substantial crop losses were also experienced in the southeastern and coastal lowlands arising from poor long rains.

An estimated 650,000 persons, predominately drought-affected and a few flood-affected, still require relief food through Cash for Work (CfW) and Food-for Work (FfW) programs. A further 2.4 million persons in pastoral, agropastoral and marginal agricultural areas are expected to benefit from non-food interventions, across sectors, following recommendations of the just-concluded long rains assessments. An estimated $6.6 million is required for livestock interventions, $7.2 million for crop production, $2.7 million for health and nutrition, $25 million for water and sanitation and $3 million for education.

Seasonal Timeline

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Most likely food security scenario

Basic description of the scenario and main assumptions

The climate outlook for the Kenya for the long-rains season suggests that while a La Nina event is likely, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean are gradually warming. Subsequently, dry La Nina conditions are likely to be mitigated by increased rains over the drought-prone northeast and southeastern highlands, averting a poor short-rains season. In addition, a timely onset in mid-October and clear establishment of the short rains by mid-November should enhance prospects for a normal season. As a result, livestock production will strengthen, manifested by increased birth rates, improved terms of trade for pastoralists, increased milk availability and reduced malnutrition. However, the consolidation of pastoral recovery from previous poor seasons requires the implementation of livelihood strengthening interventions.

The assumption under this scenario is that excessive and unseasonable rains over the western and Rift Valley highlands, the country’s key cropping areas, will cease during the remainder of the harvest (October-January). The rains are now causing pre-and post harvest crop losses, which have significantly reduced expected bean output and caused some appreciable wheat and maize losses. Cessation of rains could consolidate the highly favorable domestic supply of maize and result in a marked reduction in prices, which would be especially beneficial for deficit producers in the southeastern, coastal lowlands and pastoral rangelands. A normal season in the drought-prone southeastern marginal agricultural lowlands is critical because the region is overwhelmingly short-rains dependent. The assumption is that a favorable short-rains season will fully compensate for the poor long rains season in 2007.

Under this scenario, heightened incidence of conflict that characterized 2007 will be reduced significantly in response to favorable access to pasture and water, as well as the on-going conflict prevention and mitigation efforts that are being implemented by the GoK, Arid Lands and Resource Management Project (ALRMP) and NGOs. Subsequently, pastoralists in particular will freely be able to access grazing resources in the event that rains are not uniformly distributed in all areas. In addition, markets across the pastoral livelihood will be accessible resulting in expanded market participation and favorable prices to pastoralists.

Food security implications

• Under this scenario, the recovery process for northwestern pastoralists will be strengthened, while that of the pastoralists in the northeast and farmers in the southeast will resume. However, many of the drought and flood-affected households that have suffered substantial erosion of assets that are required to sustain the recovery process will not recover unless proposed cross-sectoral livelihood interventions are widely implemented.
• The marginal agricultural southeastern and coastal lowlands are short-rains dependent, and a normal or good season would greatly enhance household food security. Households will only fully benefit from a good short rains season if they are not compelled to sell their produce soon after the harvest, when prices are low. Improving on-farm storage facilities and access to credit may enable them to hold on to some of their crop and reduce the risk of post-harvest losses.
• There will be limited need for relief food interventions outside of areas where the recovery process fails to take hold, in areas that are affected by floods or in localized areas where short rains are poor. In this instance, FfW and CfW would be recommended due to expected availability of food in local markets.
• The national maize supply from the long and short-rains season, coupled with carry over stock, will ensure that the country is well supplied with its key staple through the 2008 marketing year. Since the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) is supplied beyond the requirement, the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) is unlikely purchase large quantities of maize, and this could result in a substantial decline in prices that could negatively impact agricultural producers.

Scenario timeline analysis

• The 2007 short-rains season is expected to begin in mid-October and the extent to which the season has established will be clear by mid-November, a significant pointer to the expected outcome of the season.
• Current unseasonable rains need to be monitored carefully as they will not only cause more significant pre- and post-harvest losses but could impede land preparation and planting from the present time through the beginning of the season in mid-October.
• The most significant harvest, which occurs in the western and Rift Valley highlands between early November and January, could determine whether the country is self-sufficient or not, for most of 2008.
• The long rains assessment report was presented to donors in mid-September, and the extent to which proposed interventions that are intended to consolidate the recovery process are adopted will be clarified over the next two months.

Opportunities for response

Under this scenario, interventions would aim at upholding the recovery process while at the same time building the resilience of pastoral and marginal agricultural livelihoods to future shocks. While pastoral and marginal agricultural households in drought-prone areas have experienced significant improvements, their livelihoods remain fragile after a succession of poor past seasons. Interventions are required across sectors in health and nutrition, water and sanitation, agriculture and livestock and education not only in drought-affected areas but also among households in livelihood zones that have shown appreciable gains in household food security, as in Turkana, Samburu, southern Garissa, Ijara West Pokot and Baringo districts.

• Planned livestock re-stocking programs intended to re-build the pastoralists’ income base need to be implemented urgently, since the short-rains season is due to begin in mid-October.
• Prevention and control of a possible upsurge in livestock disease that often follows the start of the rainy season is critical.
• Repeated outbreaks of vector and water-borne diseases over the past three seasons, including cholera and malaria, particularly in pastoral, coastal and lakeshore areas, suggest that surveillance, treatment and mitigation in the health and water sectors are urgently required.
• Targeted food distributions for an estimated 650,000 persons through FfW and CfW in pastoral areas need to continue.
• Importantly, targeted supplementary feeding programs need to continue, particularly in the eastern pastoral districts and localized areas of northwestern pastoral districts, where rates of child malnutrition surpass WHO’s emergency threshold.
• Roads, dykes and structures damaged by rains and floods require urgent rehabilitation to avoid further destruction as well as to open up roads especially in pastoral, coastal and lakeshore areas to improve access to markets and services.
• Conflict resolution and prevention in pastoral areas as well as in fishing areas across Lake Victoria between Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania are critical in averting rising numbers of lives and livelihoods lost.
• Water facilities have degraded significantly, necessitating the rehabilitation of boreholes and desilting of dams in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas so as to enhance the holding capacities of these sources and reduce watering distances.
• Land degradation in the pastoral rangeland and the marginal cropping areas is extensive. A good rainy season is no longer sufficient to assure a good crop or favorable pasture or water availability. Soil and water conservation activities are a prerequisite.

Worst case food security scenario

Basic description of the scenario and main assumptions

The October-December climate outlook for Kenya suggests that the western half of the country and areas along the coastal strip will experience normal to above normal short rains and the eastern half, normal to below normal rains. Under the worst-case scenario, the key assumption is that the forecast for below normal rains in the drought-affected northeastern pastoral and southeastern marginal agricultural areas is not mitigated by rising SSTs and increased rains over eastern Kenya. Poor rains over the east half of the country would accentuate growing food insecurity and exacerbate the scarcity of key resources, namely pasture, browse and water. Farm households in the southeastern marginal agricultural areas that are overwhelmingly short-rains dependent would experience a severe deterioration in their food security, especially after a poor long rains season that was characterized by a near total crop failure.

Another scenario assumption is that current unseasonable rains in the western half of Kenya will continue. Continued rains over the western and Rift Valley highlands could result in significant pre- and post-harvest crop damage in key growing areas. Already, an estimated 30 percent of the bean crop has been lost along with a significant amount of the wheat crop. Maize, the key staple, is much more tolerant to heavy rains, but continued rains could impede drying and harvesting of the crop or cause the crop to be harvested while still wet, accelerating post-harvest losses. Flooding along Lake Victoria and coastal areas are also likely under this scenario.

This scenario assumes that frequency of conflict, which has been prominent in pastoral areas during most of 2007, will increase. The growing scarcity of resources will precipitate competition over resources and re-open past conflict. As conflict escalates, access to localized areas of good pastures, water and browse will be impeded as the more dominant raiders drive out the rest of the pastoralists to much ‘safer’ but drier areas. Access to livestock and cereal markets will also be limited under this scenario. Subsequently, pastoralists will have to trade their livestock in uncompetitive markets, while purchasing cereals at abnormally high prices.

The final scenario assumption is that proposed interventions that were intended to mitigate the impacts of next poor season while strengthening the resilience of livelihoods will not be implemented to any significant degree. Many of these interventions are in the water, health, agriculture and livestock sectors. The livelihoods of northeastern pastoralists and southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural farmers remain fragile, after poor 2007 rains coupled with the extended drought that rain from April 2004 –March 2006.

Food security implications

• A livelihood crisis will likely develop in the pastoral areas, and in the southeastern and coastal areas that are away from the coastal strip. In the pastoral areas, pastoralists no longer have access to milk and the body conditions of the livestock deteriorate to the extent that their market value falls. The lack of access to milk and meat products, coupled with limited income from the livelihood, is also manifested in rising rates of child malnutrition. Already, rates in some areas of the eastern pastoral districts, such as Mandera and Wajir, exceed WHO’s emergency threshold.
• It is likely that a humanitarian crisis might be averted because of two mitigating factors: (i) relief food distributions are set to continue in the northeastern pastoral districts; (ii) the northwestern pastoral districts experienced very good long rains, which have continued into September and are expected to receive good short rains. Should the forecast hold, some migration options may be open for pastoralists from the drought-affected northeast.
• Expanding conflict within the northeastern pastoral livelihood would likely limit access to markets and to localized areas in the northeast that received good long rains and still retain significant pasture, browse and water. The precarious food security situation of drought-affected pastoralists would worsen, because the limited gains achieved after the long rains would be quickly eroded by disruptive conflict.
• Farm households in the short rains-dependent southeastern and coastal lowlands are likely to face severe food shortages in the worst-case scenario. Although the 2006 short-rains season was excellent, most households sold their output at very low prices, which have now nearly tripled. Other households suffered substantial post-harvest losses due to a combination of poor on-farm storage infrastructure and utilization of ineffective counterfeit storage chemicals.
• While the national maize supply is favorable, in the worst case scenario, the continuation of excess rains will lead to significant losses, which could tighten domestic supply somewhat and could cause an increase in prices. However, the SGR stock exceeds the statutory requirement, and carryover stocks are sufficient to supply the country through the first quarter of 2008, at least.
• The food security status of households residing in the flood plains along Lake Victoria and the Indian Ocean could deteriorate substantially in the event that anticipated above normal rains in these two areas are sustained. Displacement, crop damage and loss of assets and livelihoods would negate the potential benefits of above normal rains.

Scenario timeline analysis

The quality of the short rains season will become clear by mid-November, and the operational scenario will be clarified. Continuation of excess rains in key harvesting areas in the Rift Valley and western highlands from October through December would be problematic because a lot of the mature crop could begin to rot. The bulk of the crop is harvested from November through January, a period that would more conclusively determine the national food supply.

Under this scenario, trends in livestock and cereal prices from the current period through the end of February will be indicative of whether or not drought-affected eastern pastoral and marginal agricultural households are facing prohibitive cereal prices amidst falling livestock prices. The extent to which conflict impedes pastoral households in particular from accessing markets and grazing resources will also be clarified through the same period. After consistent decline for more than one year, rates of child malnutrition in the eastern pastoral areas are expected to begin to increase as the dry season sets in.

Opportunities for response

In response to this scenario, there is a greater emphasis on humanitarian and livelihood emergency interventions, particularly in eastern pastoral areas that would face a humanitarian and livelihood crisis.

• Expand the emergency food distribution to include the worst-affected households in the northeastern and southeastern lowlands. The number of beneficiaries would range between 1-2 million persons. Most of the northwestern and southern pastoralists and agropastoralists are not included.
• Targeted therapeutic and supplementary feeding centers need to be instituted in areas where rates of child malnutrition are alarmingly high and rising.
• Water sources require urgent rehabilitation and desilting so as to minimize watering distances and clustering around scarce water sources, which often leads to conflict.
• On-going conflict mitigation and prevention initiatives currently being carried out by the GoK, ALRMP and NGOs need to be emphasized from October onward.
• Purification of water sources that were contaminated by floods needs to be carried out.
• Disease prevention and control measures need to be expanded. Weakened children in particular, tend to be highly susceptible to water and vector borne diseases, further worsening their nutrition status.
• Rapid infrastructural interventions are needed to ensure that livestock and food markets are accessible to pastoral and marginal agricultural households from September, so as to promote trade and minimize transaction costs that are often passed on to drought-affected pastoral and marginal agricultural farm households.
• Maintain the Government of Kenya’s SGR at the current high level, so as to mitigate undesirable price increases in the event that a significant proportion of the key crop is lost through pre- and post harvest losses.
• Enhance crop storage techniques at the household level so as to reduce the need to sell crops when prices are lowest and mitigate additional crop losses as well as avoid contamination of poorly stored crop by aflatoxin, a common occurrence, especially in the marginal agricultural areas.

Conclusion

In the most likely food security scenario, SSTs will warm and the short rains will be good, while in the worst case, a La Nina will occur and drier conditions will prevail over eastern Kenya. However, current warming of the Indian Ocean and the recent increase in rainfall over coastal and some parts of the eastern pastoral districts would seem to suggest that the case for the first scenario is strong, at least at this point. Close monitoring of the situation is warranted in view of the fact that the southeastern and coastal lowlands and the northeastern pastoral districts experienced poor long rains in 2007 and have limited capacity to withstand another poor season. A poor 2007 short-rains season in the drought prone pastoral and cropping lowlands will likely culminate in a livelihood crisis, accelerated by the fragility of the livelihoods.