Figure 1: Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (Jul to Sep) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• About 520,000 people are currently highly food insecure and in need of immediate humanitarian assistance through March 2008 in seven provinces in southern and central Mozambique as a result of weather shocks in early 2007. The government and the humanitarian community are planning intervention strategies at the provincial and district sublevels and identifying and prioritizing the most vulnerable households.

• In the most-likely scenario, food security is expected to improve moderately from October to December and improve significantly from January to March 2008. This improvement will result from adequate humanitarian assistance, contribution of the second-season production, a good start of the rains in October and gradual improvement throughout the rainy season, which may lead to gradual availability of the green harvest from January/February 2008.

• In the worst-case scenario, food security will deteriorate through the end of the year due to inadequate humanitarian assistance, a bad start of the rainy season and an insignificant contribution from the second production season. As a result, an additional 140,000 people will need food assistance by October, and many households will be extremely food insecure. Conditions will improve slightly in early 2008 with the onset of the green harvest, even though it will be late and below normal.

• Another potential scenario involves extreme weather events such as storms, floods or cyclones affecting coastal and river-basin areas of Mozambique. Such events are likely during the October to March rainy season, and may displace people and disrupt local household livelihoods, requiring emergency humanitarian assistance. Local food insecurity will increase in this scenario in the coastal area from Nampula to Inhambane for storms and in the major river basins, such as Limpopo, Zambeze, Púngue and Buzi, for floods.

Current food security conditions, July to September 2007

This year, food security was directly affected by multiple shocks in early 2007, including significant rainfall deficits in most of the south, Cyclone Favio, which struck parts of southern and central Mozambique in February, and flooding along the Zambezi River in February and March.

As a result, immediate humanitarian assistance is currently needed for 520,000 people in Mozambique until March 2008 due to increasing levels of food insecurity. Slow deliveries of emergency supplies, high food prices and limited coping strategies, particularly in the southern portion of the country, are exacerbating existing food insecurity. Ongoing efforts to adequately identify target groups at the district sublevel by the government and partners must be accelerated, especially in the drought-affected areas of the south where most households have already exhausted their food reserves. These households have had to rely on the market earlier than normal this year to access food, and are now employing negative coping strategies including selling productive assets and reducing the number and quality of meals.

In the south, the rainfall deficits in early 2007 led to a significant reduction in production during this year’s harvest. Average maize prices in southern Mozambique in mid-August were 30 percent higher than last year at this time and about 50 percent higher than the five-year average as a result, limiting market access to food for the majority of households. Poor households in this area rely substantially on own-production for food access, and the production losses resulted in decreased household food access. Moreover, rural areas in the south are generally remote and isolated from markets and roads, which limits household ability to earn cash income, especially from activities other than selling crops or agricultural labor, compounding the effects of the high prices and below-normal household stocks. The abnormally high staple food prices are likely to continue until February 2008, when the initial green crops from the next main harvest will be available.

The availability of water for both human and animal consumption is inadequate in most drought-stricken areas. Safe drinking water is therefore increasingly scarce in most places, which is compounding the effects of reduced food access and making food insecurity even worse.

Overall, prospects for the second-season harvest in August and September are mixed. The low levels of rainfall and the abnormally high temperatures during this season permitted that only a limited number of households and farmer associations with access to lowlands and with irrigation facilities could produce for their own consumption and for sale, mainly of horticulture crops. Most households in the remote areas away from the lowlands produced a negligible second harvest, and are now highly food insecure.

In the north, households remain relatively food secure, as food availability and access are adequate. Production surpluses are supplying the markets and are being exported to neighboring countries, especially to Malawi. Prices remain favorable for market purchases by many households. Low levels of food insecurity may be occurring in parts of the coastal districts of Nampula and Cabo Delgado provinces, due to chronic problems related to cassava brown steak disease and inadequate food utilization.

As the country approaches the start of the main 2007/08 agriculture season, planning for and implementation of input trade fairs and the expansion of drought-mitigation activities is recommended. So far, resources are in place for implementing inputs trade fairs for beneficiaries in 25,000 households, although the number of potential beneficiaries is likely to be much higher. Urgent resource mobilization for food aid for the 520,000 with immediate need is also needed.

Most-likely food security scenario, October 2007 to March 2008

The rainy season is expected to begin in the south in October and move gradually to the center and north of the country. The currently prevailing La Niña conditions will likely lead to a near-normal rainy season, in which rainfall is expected to be well distributed during the season through April/May without any significant dry spells. Localized flooding is possible, and tropical storms, including possible cyclones of category 2 or higher, may hit the coast. However, an overall good season is expected. An adequate input supply will allow for a good start of the agriculture season.

Figure 2: Most-likely scenario: estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Figure 3: Most-likely scenario: estimated food security conditions, first quarter 2008 (Jan to Mar) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Food availability will continue to be limited in the southern and central portions of Mozambique. Second-season production through the end of September will contribute as a mitigating factor for a small number of households who had access to lowlands and/or irrigation facilities. However, preliminary qualitative information indicates that the second season has not performed well in most drought-stricken areas of the south, especially in the remote interior and semi-arid zone of Gaza and Inhambane provinces, and the majority of households will not benefit from it. However, an adequate response from the government and humanitarian community will improve the current levels of food insecurity in the country, especially in the drought-affected areas of the south and parts of the central region.

South and Center

As a result of the low food availability and generally poor second-season harvest, the abnormally high prices of staple foods are likely to persist until February 2008, when the first green harvest will be available. Despite maize production surpluses in the north and parts of the central provinces, trade flows are likely to be insufficient to cover production deficits in the south, given the high cost of transportation to the region. Cereals are likely to be imported from South Africa into southern Mozambique, although the remoteness, poor road conditions and poor currency circulation will limit the benefit of these imports to primarily middle-income and wealthier households in urban and peri-urban areas.

The adequate humanitarian assistance from October to December will maintain or improve the current levels of food insecurity. The October to December period is normally characterized by a gradual deterioration of food security, but the projected improvement in the levels of humanitarian assistance and in food and water availability will prevent or keep the current situation from deteriorating as would have been expected. The timely supply of inputs in preparation for the next cropping season will also be crucial for food security: for households able to purchase inputs, a sufficient supply early in the season will enable a timely planting of crops and earlier availability of the green harvest in February 2008. For poorer households that are unable to afford inputs, input donations will enable them to avoid using grain distributed as food assistance for seed.

While the SETSAN/VAC report indicates the possibility of an increase in the number of food insecure people by 140,000 if the second season fails, it is expected that the number won’t increase beyond the current 520,000 due to the various mitigating interventions from the government and humanitarian community.

From January to March 2008, the combination of the humanitarian aid and the expected improvement of agro-climatic conditions is expected to significantly improve the food security situation. Favorable agro-climatic conditions will increase the availability of income-generation opportunities from agricultural labor and will also increase the availability of water for both human and animals. In addition, the green harvest of the main agriculture season will increase food access in early 2008. Food security will improve to moderate levels of insecurity throughout the south. However, particularly in the central region, the lowlands along river basins are likely to be flooded and to remain so through March, and localized moderate food insecurity may occur for households in these areas.

North

In the north, the current conditions of general food security at the household level are expected to continue through March 2008. Food availability and access will be adequate, and production surpluses will supply the markets and enable continued exports to neighboring countries. Prices will remain favorable for market purchases by most households. Even if heavy rains occur during the rainy season, most households throughout the region will be generally food secure. Low levels of food insecurity will likely occur in the coastal areas of Nampula and Cabo Delgado that face chronic problems of inadequate food utilization and cassava brown steak disease.

Worst-case food security scenario, October 2007 to March 2008

South and Center

Figure 4: Worst-case scenario: estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Figure 5: Worst-case scenario: estimated food security conditions, first quarter 2008 (Jan to Mar) FULL-SIZE IMAGE