Figure 1. Current food security situation FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Angola

Most of Angola is currently food secure, owing to a combination of regular availability of food reserves from previous harvests, recent harvests of cassava, sweet potato and beans as well as on target levels of food imports (figure 1). However, households face moderate to high food insecurity in unimodal Cunene, due to poor rainfall this season and a poor harvest last season; in Uige, due to a virus attack on this season’s cassava crop; and in Moxico, Lunda Sul, Huambo, Benguela, Huila, Bengo, Zaire and Uige, due to intense rains that have devastated more than 80,000ha of cultivated land. In these areas, about 28,500 households have been displaced by floods and heavy rains. These hazards have also damaged roads, reducing the flow of food from surplus to deficit areas.

A positive food security outlook seems to be developing in most of the country. The forecast of normal rains, improved access to seeds and fertilizers, and provision of land preparation services, including tractors, may lead to good production and, subsequently, improved food and income security from May 2007 to November 2007. A less optimistic outlook is projected in those districts where intense rains could negatively impact food security at the household level and food availability in local markets. A recent forecast anticipates a neutral El Nino for the rest of the season. However, the persistence of adverse rainfall conditions into the second half of the season could aggravate food security in Cunene and Cuando Cubango until April/May 2008 if no appropriate response measures are put in place. The cassava mosaic virus could reduce the food security of households in the northern provinces if not effectively controlled. Should these less favorable conditions materialize, the National Food Security Office (GSA) with the support of NGOs and donors should undertake impact assessments of drought, flood and virus attacks in affected areas in July 2007.

Timeline of seasonal events

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Current food security

The current food security conditions are favorable in much of Angola thanks to the availability of food reserves from the last nacas harvest, the continued harvesting of cassava in the north and recent harvests of sweet potato, beans and fresh maize in most districts. Food imports and an increase in the number of functional markets (those facilitating the trade in food between surplus and deficit areas) has also contributed to the generally food secure status that currently prevails.

This favorable food security status can be confirmed by the stability of food prices, the decline in the proportion of households resorting to negative coping strategies, and the good nutritional status of children below five years of age. Maize grain prices vary between AKZ20/kg in Balombo to AKZ50/kg in Cambambe, and do not show an increase in prices when compared with last year’s prices.

However, households in Cunene, mainly in Curoca district, have very limited cereal reserves, and have started consuming wild products and reduced the number of daily meals. Vatua people and koissan (Bushmen) do not have livestock nor cropped fields and are the most vulnerable populations in Cunene. In Namibe, another southern province, households are moderately food insecure and depend on the food aid program implemented by the Ministry of Assistance and Social Reinsertion (MINARS).

The mosaic virus attack on cassava production in Uige, mainly in Cangola, has made the population dependent on food from other districts and imported food arriving at Luanda Port.

In some districts of Uige, Huambo, Benguela, Huila, Moxico and Lunda Sul, heavy rains and floods have destroyed 80,000 ha of farmland and damaged roads, limiting the flow of food from surplus to deficit areas. Floods have displaced about 28,500 people, and 114 people have been killed. In Huambo, intense rains have leached soils and compromised the season’s bean production, which will be minimal to non-existent. MINARS has launched a US $30 million aid program to help the food insecure population.

Although prices are not high, the reduced agricultural income due to small surplus from the recent harvest has constrained households from accessing food from local markets in deficit districts, as is the case of Curoca in Cunene. Sales of livestock and charcoal, trade and opportunities for manual labor have allowed a few households to generate income. Incomes in urban areas have also been affected by the delay in payment of salaries to civil servants and public sector employees, affecting not only public sector employees themselves but those who they would otherwise employ and from they would buy food or other products.

Refugees returning to the provinces of Zaire, Uige, Bengo, Huambo and Bie from DRC, Zambia and Namibia are only just beginning to reestablish their livelihoods. They are very susceptible to shocks such as intense rains, drought and virus attack.

Most likely food security scenario is favorable

The forecast for normal rains in the second half of the season in northern, eastern and central Angola, and the improved access to inputs and agricultural mechanization services have improved prospects for a good harvest in April-May 2007. A good food security scenario is therefore expected, whereby smallholders could produce enough to feed the households and earn income supplying the markets of deficit producing districts, provinces and neighboring countries until November 2007. Favorable food security conditions could continue until February 2008 if smallholders are encouraged to plant sweet potato in June 2007, and vegetable, Irish potato and beans on nacas from July to August 2007.

Worst case food security scenarios

There are three worst case food security scenarios that could create pockets of food insecurity in some localized districts of the country:

(1) Intense rains in eastern, northern and central Angola could displace additional households and destroy even more farmland and household assets, while disrupting trade and limiting food availability and access by damaging roads and bridges; the ensuing food insecurity would be localized but could extend until the 2008 harvest if appropriate responses are not effectively implemented.

(2) Drought could develop in parts of southern Angola. While the recent forecast from climate centers has cleared southern Angola from possible drought, dry conditions observed during the first half of the rainy season in Cunene (with the exception of Cuvelai district) could continue. Early rains provided pasture and drinking water for livestock, but soil moisture may not be adequate to guarantee at least normal harvests of millet, sorghum and cowpeas. This scenario could complicate food security in Cunene until May-July 2008 if there is not an appropriate response, such as improving road access to facilitate the flow of products. Agro-pastoral households may then resort to distress sales of livestock in order to purchase cereals and other foods they would otherwise have been able to produce.

(3) Cassava mosaic virus could seriously limit household production and incomes in northern Angola. Left uncontrolled, this cassava virus could have devastating effects that could last years and see Angola again dependent on imports of cassava flour from other African countries. The virus could spread from southern Uige northward within the province, southward to Bengo, Kwanza Norte and Malange, and westward to Zaire.

Season forecast and rainfall performance to date

Figure 2. Difference in estimated rainfall for September 2006 to first dekad of March 2007 from the average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Angola

The timely onset of rains, with normal levels of rainfall across most of the country has contributed to good crop and livestock development in most districts. From September 2006 through the first dekad of March 2007, most districts have received rainfall levels close to or above the average (figure 2). However, intense rains have constrained some households from performing their livelihood activities, negatively affecting their current and future food security. Intense rains and floods have leached soil nutrients, contributing to an anticipated 40 percent drop in bean production and a 6 percent drop in maize production from previous year harvest in provinces such as Huambo and Moxico. The duration of the regular pequeno cacimbo (small dry spell) in most districts between January and February was shorter than normal in most districts. However, the longer than normal pequeno cacimbo in Malange and in northern Namibe negatively affected bean and groundnut crops and delayed the planting of second phase crops that was supposed to start in late February. An extended dry spell in Cunene after an early start of rains in October has also had a negative effect on crops everywhere in the province but Cuvelai. A similar situation has also been observed in Ambriz in Bengo.

Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for March – May 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SADC Drought Monitoring Center

Although the low levels of cumulative rainfall are currently a concern in Cunene, the continued weakening of El Nino that most climate centers forecast may bring rains to normal or above normal levels for the whole country (figure 3). Such a scenario is likely to improve production prospects for millet, sorghum, cowpea and livestock in Cunene and other crops in other part of Angola. However, above normal levels or rainfall may damage cultivated fields and livestock, while disrupting trade, displacing households or destroying their assets.

Production outlook

In addition to good rains, the increase in the area of cultivated land and expected yields has improved the chance for harvest that is greater than the harvest last year. However, some districts are likely to experience food deficits due to lack of tools and fertilizes, crop virus and pest attacks.

There is a general view that food security for the coming month will be better than last year due to an increase in production as a result of an increase in the area of land cultivated, both in absolute terms and per household, and an increase in the number or agricultural producers. Government distribution schemes have also made agricultural implements more widely available to farming households. Government and NGO efforts in promoting traction animals and agricultural mechanization services through MECANAGRO (a public agricultural mechanization enterprise) and access to reliable small enterprises providing agricultural mechanization services in Lobito, Benguela and Lubango have also enabled households to increase the size of land they cultivate.

Improved access to and utilization of quality seeds and fertilizers distributed through government schemes has also improved yields. However, most smallholder households still rely on local markets and their own seeds from the previous harvest. The growth in yields will not only improve household food supplies but household incomes as well as market supplies.

However, poor road access has impeded government and NGO efforts to support households in some districts of Uige, Moxico and Malange, where the area of cultivated land and the potential yields have not increased.

In Cunene province, the delay in the start of the rains did not soften the soils on time nor provide pasture and water for traction animals to allow for timely land preparation. A considerable number of farmers did not have their land prepared when the rains finally began.

The spread of the cassava mosaic virus (known locally as cassava cholera), which started in southern Uige, to other northern provinces such as Kuanza Norte, Malange and Bengo may further limit cassava production in the north. In Lunda Sul, monkeys have destroyed maize and groundnut crops, raising concerns among farmers.

The impact of the government seed distribution program on food security can be improved by timely supply of adequate and appropriate type and variety of seeds based on smallholders demand. This is important in order to avoid a situation where imported seeds such as Zm521 maize seed and feijão carioca (“carioca” beans) seed imported from Mozambique are rejected. Smallholders have demanded improved variety of cassava in the north, local maize known by SAM3 in the center, and improved variety of millet and sorghum in the south. A high demand for feijão manteiga (yellow beans) and cowpea in northern, central and southern Angola has not generally been met with the import of feijão carioca. Producers in coastal districts would welcome seed and support for irrigated vegetable and banana production for direct consumption and income generation for food purchase.

Seed production and marketing in Angola or within the province could increase the availability of seed in local markets and prevent possible shortages of legume seed caused by the late arrival of imported seeds in districts affected by last season’s drought, including Tchinjenji, Ukuma and Longonjo in Huambo and Cubal and Ganda in Benguela. This could also keep seed prices more affordable, as prices in Lunda Sul were reported to have reached AKZ250/kg (US$3/kg) for maize seed and AKZ150/kg (US$2) for groundnut and cowpea seeds.

Adjusting the quantities of fertilizers distributed in coastal and central districts against those distributed in the northern provinces would improve the utilization of fertilizers that the government has already imported to improve food security. Fertilizers are not as widely used in the north as in the central and coastal districts. Fertilizer promotion in the north must involve not just making fertilizer available but also providing the full extension package that will help smallholders to move through different phases of the adoption process.

Government, NGO and local initiatives to multiply resistant cassava planting material as means of controlling the spread of cassava virus need to be stimulated. New varieties must not only incorporate resistance to virus, but also take into consideration consumer and producer preferences, like sweetness and productivity. However, smallholders in northern Angola also need to diversify crop and livelihood activities to make them less vulnerable. There is a need for a proper planning of activities to insure full control of the virus while, at the same time, guaranteeing food access at the household level and in local markets as existing cassava material is destroyed.

Livestock and fishing

Livestock raising is a more important livelihood in southern provinces, where some households exclusively specialize in livestock production, than it the central and northern provinces where smallholders specialize in crop farming. The early onset of rains in the majority of livestock raising areas has contributed to the good health and body condition of animals, given the abundance in water and pasture. However, in arid districts of Tambua and Namibe, animal were still in transhumance areas where they could use residual water in low lying land or water from rivers. The livestock situation in these arid areas will improve when most temporary rivers will be filled with water. There have been no accounts of animal epidemics.

Overall, observations suggest that the number of livestock, mainly goat, has been increasing in northern and central provinces. The southern provinces have been the main source of livestock that households in the central and northern provinces obtain through direct buying or through development programs. However, animals from central and southern provinces have been dying in transit to the northern provinces.

Fishing remains an important livelihood activity in coastal districts and districts with major rivers, such as the Kwanza River. Fishing in ponds that results from receding floods also constitute an important source of protein and income in Moxico Province.