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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Warning	February 21, 2007

Cyclone Favio to strike Mozambique

Tropical cyclone Favio, now rated as a category four cyclone, is forecast to strike Mozambique early Thursday, February 22, according to the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center of La Reunion, which monitors the South West Indian Ocean Basin. The cyclone’s current maximum average sustained winds reach 185 km/H with gusts of 260 km/H, and the cyclone is moving at an average speed of 17 km/H.

Mozambique’s National Institute of Meteorology cautions that strong winds will likely affect coastal districts of southern Gaza, Inhambane and northern Sofala provinces. The country’s new cyclone early warning system states that the potential damage from a category four storm at landfall includes widespread destruction of homes, buildings and industrial structures (including power grids), as well as crops and trees. Hourly monitoring of the storm is now underway, as the current cyclone track (Figure 1) may oscillate.

The expected impact of the cyclone will exacerbate the current emergency situation in Mozambique, where more than 120,000 people have already been displaced by flooding in the Zambezi basin. While the damage from the strong winds will likely have serious short-term negative impacts, particularly in the South of the country, the rains associated with the storm may provide welcome relief to drought-affected areas of northern Gaza, Inhambane and southern Sofala provinces.

Figure 1: Forecast cyclone trajectory and satellite imagery of cyclone Favio, as of February 21 at 6:00 UTC
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SOURCE: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/#	SOURCE: http://www.mtotec.com/

Discharges from the Cahora Bassa Dam decrease

Although water levels for the Cahora Bassa Dam are still above normal operational quantities, dam managers have decreased its discharges from 5,500 cubic meters per second to 3,300 cubic meters per second.