Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (July to September) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MFEWS

• The annual hunger period has ended in most of the country, as food availability and access have improved as a result of the primera harvest and stabilization in the price of maize. However, the hunger season continues in the highlands until November, and food access could be worse than normal in the coming months due to the high maize prices.

• The primera maize harvest that began in July in the southern coast has increased the availability of the staple grain in local markets, stabilizing its price, which has been rising consistently since early 2007. However, regional demand for maize is expected to put an upward pressure on the price of maize in Guatemala.

• The dry spell (canícula) has ended, and according to the Climate Forum forecast, it is likely that the Petén and the southern and western regions of Guatemala will receive above-average postrera rainfall, while in the rest of the country rainfall is likely to be within normal levels. The exception is in Izabal, where rainfall deficits were expected, but no damages to crops have been registered so far. With the beginning of the second part of the rainy season, hurricane activity is expected, which have recently had an indirect impact in northern and southwestern Guatemala. The rainy season has also already produced dengue outbreaks in the country.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Food and nutrition security

With the exception of the western region, the hunger season is about to end for poor households throughout Guatemala. The primera staple cereal harvest has started in northern, southern and eastern areas, with estimated yields that will be within normal ranges and no significant damages or crop losses. In the highlands (livelihood zones 5 and 6), dependency on the market to purchase food will continue until November, when the single harvest of the year in that area begins. Although the availability of maize has increased in markets around the country with produce from some departments of the southern coast, the price of maize price remains above-normal but stable. In the altiplano, as the upcoming harvest is still two months away, it is likely that food access for the population of the region will be reduced more than normal as a result of the high prices, although so far households in the region have been able to cope with the high prices.

Increased regional demand for maize, including the production deficits in southern Honduras, are putting upward pressure on the regional price of maize. It is likely that once Mexico depletes its reserves and Honduras and El Salvador increase their demand, prices will increase in those countries, thus encouraging the export of Guatemalan maize. Government authorities are aware of this possibility and are willing to take actions to guarantee national availability.

The price of beans has remained relatively stable and similar to last year’s trend. The price of rice again stabilized after a slight increase in July.

Figure 2. Nominal staple cereal consumer prices in quetzals/lb, September 7, 2007, La Terminal Market, Guatemala City FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Prepared by MFEWS with data from MAGA, UOR and UPIE/Information Area. Exchange rate: US$ 1 = Q 7.68, September 4, 2007

The second part of the rainy season began with heavy rains in most of the country, which increases the risk of negative food security impacts as the rainy season progresses. Examples of these negative impacts are the strong winds and floods that affected households in the Alta Verapaz department in mid-August. These events caused localized damages, mainly to maize crops, but did not have a significant impact on the food security of households in the region. Additionally, actions are being taken to respond to the impact of the winds and floods on the poorest households’ food and nutrition security.

Felix, the season’s second hurricane that entered Guatemalan territory from the Atlantic at the beginning of September, degraded into a tropical storm, causing damages in the Izabal, Chiquimula and Zacapa departments. Izabal was the most severely affected. The storm caused floods that damaged houses in the area, and approximately 1,200 families were taken to shelters and are receiving food aid. However, an extension of this aid beyond a month is not foreseen. Sanitation conditions are also being taken into account by the Red Cross, which will take upon the cleaning and disinfection of wells, and fumigation to prevent the emergence of vector-borne diseases.

Heavy rains, typical of winter in the Guatemalan coast, have also produced flooding in the southern coast. However, the floods have occurred in areas where they are a normal annual event, and households have developed the necessary coping mechanisms. As a result, food security impacts are not foreseen in these zones.

The rainy season continues until the beginning of November, so the hazards of a heavy rainy season could impact the country’s food and nutrition security, such as:

• Floods and mudslides could make access to and from the affected communities difficult. Moreover, damages could occur to productive infrastructure, such as the destruction of irrigation systems, storage facilities or the loss of farming tools.
• The prevalence of diarrheic diseases, respiratory infections, malaria and dengue is higher during the rainy season as well.

Copious winter rains may also damage the postrera planting that is carried out in October and November. Nevertheless, smallholder farmers are accustomed to this situation and know the risks, and start planting according to the local circumstances.

Fishermen of sardines and other fish in the Atlantic currently face seasonal fishing prohibitions. As a result, they are only fishing for their own consumption, supplemented by selling charcoal produced from the mangrove and receiving food aid from the government. These activities ensure adequate food access. Conversely, fishermen engaged in fishing shrimp are in their peak season. Nevertheless, during this season shrimp fishing is a high-risk activity due to the adverse climate conditions.

The rainy season is favorable for fishermen in the Pacific (livelihood zone 13), as it represents the peak fishing season in the region. The season is expected to conclude in October having generated sufficient income to enable the fishing households to access sufficient food.

Outbreaks of dengue have been more than expected for the season, which has influenced household food and nutrition security. Authorities are carrying out educational and prevention activities, but have not succeeded in controlling the incidence of the increase. These outbreaks have a negative impact first on household food access, as households are forced to spend their resources on the treatment of illnesses, and also on the ability to work of the economically activity population.

Figure 3. Climate outlook, August to October 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Central America Climate Forum

Weather outlook

Rainfall has been above the historical average during the first part of the rainy season, especially in the southern coastal area. Forecasts indicate that this trend will continue for this zone through October, as well as for the western zone and the Petén Department. On the other hand, rainfall is expected to be normal in the central plateau, and below normal in Izabal (Figure 3). However, the influence of two cyclonic events in the Atlantic has caused normal to high rainfall in Izabal so far this season. Prior to these events, rains were erratic, but the humidity has been sufficient for the production of a good harvest, which is harvested in August and September.

Although it is not yet clear whether La Niña conditions will become established, it has been evident that the hurricane season in the Atlantic has been more active than normal.