Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: MFEWS

Food access is below normal for most poor Honduran households as a result of an above-normal increase in the consumer price of the basic food basket. April to August is the normal hunger period for subsistence producers and landless day-laborer households, due to the lack of food availability and the low household capacity to generate income. However, the hunger season is more severe than normal this year, causing households to reduce the quantity and nutritional quality of purchased food and increase migration to urban centers, where employment opportunities for unskilled laborers are higher.

Food and nutrition security will deteriorate further in highly food insecure municipalities, particularly those in the south where staple cereal harvests were poor during the 2006/07 agricultural cycle and the demand for unskilled labor is low (See Figure 1).

Seasonal calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Food security situation

Around 900,000 poor Honduran households whose incomes range from 870 to 4,130 lempiras per month are generally unable to meet the minimum food requirements for a healthy and productive life (XXXII Encuesta Permanente de Hogares de 2006). According to data from the Honduras Central Bank, the cost of the basic food basket reached 4,740 lempiras per month for a five-person household in May 2007, which is greater than the monthly income of the 900,000 households and than the legal minimum wage rate established by the Ministry of Labor (see Figure 2). The difference between incomes and the cost of the basic food basket implies a deficit of up to 12 percent of the recommended caloric requirements for these households, who spend between 32.5 and 45 percent of their income to purchase food.

Figure 2. Price of the basic food basket and growth in the legal minimum wage FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Secretary of Labor and Social Security

The high price of maize has had a significant impact on the price of the basic food basket (Figure 3). Maize is one of the most important foods for Honduran households, as it is consumed as tortillas and is the raw material for many other basic products such as pork, chicken and eggs. Partly due to the increase in demand for maize for ethanol production in the U.S.A., the consumer price for these products has risen above the 2004-2006 average (figures 4 and 5), which is contributing to the increase in the cost of the basic food basket.

The unit price of a tortilla in May 2007 was 12 centavos higher than the 2004-2006 average (Figure 5), which implies that a five-person family that purchases tortillas must spend 216 more lempiras per month to maintain the same consumption level. This represents between 5 and 25 percent of the monthly income of poor households, and indicates reduced food access and higher food insecurity than in previous years.

Figure 3. Nominal price of maize in lempiras, at the Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula markets   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FHIA/SIMPAH June 2007; HCB 2004/2007

Figure 4. Price for one dozen eggs in lempiras, 2004 to 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: FHIA/SIMPAH June 2007; HCB 2004/2007

Figure 5. Real tortilla price in lempiras, 2004 to 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FHIA/SIMPAH June 2007; HCB 2004/2007

Most poor households are responding to this situation by limiting the quantity and nutritional quality of the food they consume through reducing the number of daily meals and the quantity and variety of food consumed per meal. Migration from rural areas to cities and from Honduras to other countries (mainly to El Salvador, Spain and the United States) is likely to increase, as wages are not likely to increase in the short term and the relation between wages and the cost of living in domestic urban areas is unfavorable for working households. Additionally, delinquency problems tend to increase in this social and economic context, mainly in urban areas amongst youth.

Onset of the rainy season and primera planting

A good primera harvest is needed in August to increase food availability and reduce staple cereal prices and thereby improve poor households’ access to food. In the northeastern part of the country, the rainy season started in March, and rainfall has been adequate to enable good primera harvests. However, the onset of the rainy season was delayed in the rest of the country, and the behavior of rains has been characterized by strong rainfall interspersed by short dry spells in the northwest and significant dry spells in central and southeastern Honduras. As a result, staple cereal yields could be poor in the dry corridor, and the primera production could be below normal.