Executive summary

Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, June 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Figure 2. Most-likely estimated food security conditions, July and August 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Figure 3. Worst-case estimated food security conditions, July and August 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

• Many households are currently food insecure as a result of typical seasonal food shortages during the May to August hunger season, when the availability of non-crop food sources is low and stocks from the last harvest have been largely depleted. About 1,000,000 people are moderately food insecure in areas where structural food shortages are severe, but are coping by consuming their last stocks of sorghum and wild foods. Current food shortages are being addressed by government-subsidized grain and food aid. Planting is ongoing in both bimodal and unimodal areas.

• In the most-likely scenario, current levels of food insecurity will continue until the main harvest in September. Households will continue to cope normally, although at least 40,000 MT of food aid will be necessary in July and August. The most-likely scenario from September onwards will depend on the performance of the June to September cropping season.

• In a worst-case scenario, high levels of population returns will occur, triggered by the planned November population census. However, a significant level of returnees is unlikely until October due to restricted transportation during the rainy season. Conflict related to the Lords Resistance Army (LRA) and other armed groups and armed intertribal cattle raiding could also disrupt market access, reduce crop yields and restrict access to pastoral grazing land in Western/Eastern Equatoria and Bahr El Jabal (also know as Central Equatoria) states and pastoral areas. The number of food insecure people would increase to 1,700,000 in this scenario.

• Key indicators to monitor during the June to August season include the dynamics of current cattle raiding and LRA conflicts; the price of and access to grain in all areas where households face a structurally severe hunger season; and crop and rainfall performance. Additionally, increasing disarmament and peace-building activities in areas affected by cattle raiding could significantly reduce raiding incidences.

Current food security situation

Many households are currently food insecure in southern Sudan as a result of the seasonally restricted food access during the May to August hunger season. Structural food deficits are normally severe in the Western and Eastern Flood Plains livelihood zones, while most households have sufficient access to food in the Greenbelt and parts of the Hills and Mountains zones (Figure 1). Food security in other zones falls between these two extremes. The structural food shortages this year are within the normal range, and are expected to end starting in September when the main crop harvest is due. Planting began in April in bimodal areas, where the first harvest is expected in July or August. In unimodal areas, planting began normally in June, and harvests are expected from September onwards.

An estimated 1,000,000 people are currently food insecure. These households are coping by consuming their last stocks of sorghum stored specifically to be consumed during the current cultivation season, wild foods and livestock products, supplemented by government-subsidized grain and food aid. Although the specific amount of grain being subsidized by the government is unclear, it is expected to be significantly alleviating hunger-season food shortages as it did last year.

Figure 4. Livelihood zones in southern Sudan FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Most-likely food security scenario

In the most-likely scenario, households will cope with the normal hunger season, given last year’s good food production, normal availability of wild foods and the stable conditions during the first half of 2007. Food shortages will be alleviated by government-subsidized grain and ongoing food aid interventions. Only limited localized conflict will occur. Additionally, significant population returns will not occur; large-scale returns of people from northern Sudan were expected in early 2007, but this is now unlikely with the onset of the June to September rainy season.

As a result, typical hunger-season conditions are expected to continue until September. The approximately 1 million people currently food insecure will continue to have restricted access through the end of August, including people that have returned this year. At least 40,000 MT of food aid will be needed to address food shortages.

The current food insecurity is the result of structural problems stemming from the past 20 years of civil war. While food aid and government subsidies will help the population get through the year, only long-term stability and recovery from the war will bring significant improvements in the food security situation. Opportunities to address the structural problems beyond food aid include improving market access and road infrastructure, significant increases in health care, water and sanitation infrastructure and continued peace-building and disarmament efforts.

Worst-case food security scenario

In a worst-case scenario, large-scale population returns from northern Sudan will occur, although this is highly unlikely until after October 2007 given the difficult transportation during the rainy season. Additionally, localized conflicts will cause food security to deteriorate. Conflict related to the LRA and other armed groups in Western/Eastern Equatoria and Bahr El Jabal states is a particular concern, as the peace negotiations between the Government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army rebel group are progressing slowly and are sometimes disrupted. Such attacks have resulted in the loss of assets and restricted movement, trade flows and labor migration since the beginning of the year. Although movement has also decreased normally with the onset of the rainy season, persistent LRA attacks could disrupt ongoing cultivation and reduce crop yields, which are critical to improving food security between August and December in affected areas.

Armed cattle-raiding conflicts that have recently escalated in the pastoral areas of Eastern Equatoria and Jonglei states could also negatively impact food security if they become widespread. Increased cattle-raiding activities would reduce access to local trade and exchange mechanisms and restrict access to traditional dry-season grazing areas.

Limited access to government-subsidized grain or extremely high prices due to exploitation by dishonest traders could also occur in a worst-case scenario.

As a result of the restricted food access due to these conditions, the number of food insecure people would increase to 1,700,000 through August, implying that increased food assistance would be required. This would overwhelm existing food availability and transportation capacity, especially due to bad road conditions caused by the ongoing rains. However, this scenario is not likely to occur between now and August.