Figure 1: Current estimated food security conditions (April 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

The annual hunger season in Guatemala began in April. Households have begun to run out of food reserves from the last harvest that ended in January, and will depend on the market to purchase their food until the next harvest comes in August. This year, the hunger period will likely be especially severe for the poorest households. Unseasonably high maize prices, resulting from the current high international price of maize, will restrict food access more than normal, especially for subsistence producers and landless households. Subsistence-producing households still have reserves that will carry them partially through May.

The rainy season, which normally begins in May, may start poorly as a result of the El Niño phenomenon. This could cause losses or decreased crop yields in the next harvest, affecting food availability for subsistence households starting in August.

Seasonal calendar

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Food and nutrition security

The annual hunger period when poor households have limited access to food is beginning in eastern Guatemala, and will start in May or June in the rest of the country. Household cereal reserves from the last harvest in early 2007 have been depleted, and there is a lack of wild fruits and herbs, causing households to depend almost exclusively on markets to purchase their food. Additionally, there is low demand for unskilled labor, which is the main source of income for the poor population throughout the country, further limiting food access.

The purchase of food will be more difficult than normal during this hunger season given the current high food prices. The price of maize continues to rise, and is well above the normal price for this time of year (Figure 2). Oil prices are also increasing as a result of international price movements. Both phenomena impact the prices of basic goods, which has created an increasing inflationary trend since October 2006 (see Figure 3).

Figure 2. Nominal staple cereal consumer prices, April 16, 2007, La Terminal Market, Guatemala City
Maize	Beans	Rice
FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Blue indicates the 2002 to 2006 average prices Source: Prepared by MFEWS with data from MAGA, UOR and UPIE/Area of Information. Exchange rate: US$ 1 = Q7.67, April 16, 2007

Maize and beans are the most important staple cereals, constituting the basis of the diet of most poor households. The price behavior of beans is normal, although its increase began one or two months earlier than in previous years. However, the increase in the price of maize could force some households to purchase less of this cereal, and it cannot be substituted by beans or rice as their prices are higher than the price of maize. The price of rice has not varied throughout the year, but it is higher than normal. This is likely due to the production of rice in the U.S.A. being displaced by the production of maize, thus reducing the supply of rice and increasing its price.

Figure 3. Inflation   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: National Statistics Institute

The main impact of these high prices will be on poor households with a high dependence on markets. In Guatemala, the poorest population groups are subsistence producers; landless households; and resource-poor fishermen, mainly in the Atlantic, who almost exclusively on the purchase of food. Currently, the most vulnerable areas are the highland zones that experienced crop losses in November, and in the east, where problems of chronic malnutrition problems exist (see Figure 1). There are no signs yet that the high food prices are affecting the quantity of food purchased by these poor households, but their food access is expected to be impacted more than normal from May to August.

Weather outlook

Although the El Niño phenomenon is in its final phase, it can still cause an irregular start of the rainy season, which normally begins in April or May, and thus affect the yield of the primera staple cereal harvest which starts in August. Planting is currently underway in the highlands, while it has not yet started in the rest of the country. Isolated rains fell during the first weeks of April in localized areas of the country, and there is concern that farmers will begin sowing in response to this possible false start of winter, inducing crop stress in May and June if rainfall discontinues.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAGA) has already implemented some programs to mitigate the possible impact on farmers caused by these rainfall irregularities, such as the supply of short-cycle drought-resistant seeds, which can enable a harvest with reasonable yields within a relatively short period. MAGA has also advised farmers to store their supply of irrigation water for the coming months.

Another upcoming hazard, related to the climate forecast and to poor agricultural practices, is forest fires. These fires reduce forest coverage, increase the possibility of insect infestations in the coming months due to the change in the habitat, and threaten crop production. Few fires have occurred so far this year, according to the National Institute of Forestry. Nevertheless, fires are still a hazard until the onset of the rains, especially if the rains are delayed and the dry season is extended. This is of particular concern in the Petén Department, where fires can affect huge expanses of forests and land.