Food insecurity is about to increase in the dry zone and the central large-scale agricultural sector in Nicaragua when the hunger season beings in April. In these zones, 75,000 smallholder farming families face depleting food reserves and a lack of employment due to the end of the coffee and sugar cane harvests. Households will not have access to income to meet their needs, and will likely require food aid, seeds and other agricultural inputs until the primera harvest starts in July or August.

In parts of the Atlantic Autonomous Regions and Rio San Juan, the harvest of the apante crop in March is providing households with food and income from the sale of beans. In the rest of the country, the situation remains stable and the start of the rainy season is expected in April or May to enable the sowing of the primera crop.

Seasonal calendar

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Agricultural production and food security implications

Figure 1. Areas where the hunger season will begin in April
Dry zone	Large-scale coffe/livestock estates
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Source: FAO – UCA

Food security is stable at the national level. Most families still have income from the sale of labor in the agroindustrial sector from November to March, and others have food from the apante harvest that begins in March. In April, however, nearly 75,000 poor farming families will experience seasonal food insecurity due to food shortages and lack of income.

About 75,000 households of poor farmers and agriculture day laborers will be more vulnerable to increased food insecurity in the dry zone and the large-scale coffee/livestock estate zone starting in April, with the end of the coffee and sugar cane harvesting season (Figure 1). These families will face a lack of income and food shortages, which are normal characteristics of the hunger period, until the primera harvest in August. They will require food aid and seeds to ensure production of the primera crop.

Figure 2. Apante production zones

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Source: MFEWS

The apante harvest began in March in the Northern and Southern Atlantic Autonomous Regions (RAAS and RAAN), Jinotega, Matagalpa and Rio San Juan (Figure 2). The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry estimates maize production of 47,300 MT and bean production of 65,085 MT, 30 percent less than the previous apante production cycle due to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon.

However, the harvest has provided 14,000 smallholder farming and semi-farming households with staple cereal reserves, especially of beans, for own-consumption and sale. The average production per family ranged between 10 and 13 quintals per manzana (1 manzana = 0.7 ha), which will meet these families’ own-consumption needs (50 lbs per month for a 6 to 8 member family), and provide income for other needs until the primera harvest comes out in June or July.

The sale of citrus fruits continues in the higher part of the Pacific, Carazo, Granada and Managua departments, as well as in the northern mountainous region of the country. The avocado harvest is also beginning, with prices ranging from 60 to 75 cordobas per 100 units that provide an average income of 540 to 657 cordobas per week, which is an important source of income that enables families to at least cover their food expenses.

In plantain production areas (Rivas, Chinandega and Managua), local plantain prices range from 1 to 1.5 cordobas per unit, supplying households with an income of 200 to 300 cordobas per week. Its harvesting is also a good source of employment during this period, ensuring the poorest households’ access to basic food until the primera sowing begins.

Market prices and food access

Figure 3. Cost of the basic food basket

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Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry.

The estimated monthly cost of the basic food basket for five individuals in February was 2,911 cordobas. This cost is much higher than that of 2005 and 2006 (Figure 3), which is reducing the food access of poor households that rely on the market to purchase their food.

Households that have neither food reserves nor alternative income generation opportunities will migrate mainly to El Salvador and Costa Rica to meet their basic needs. In Costa Rica, the average daily wage ranges from 130 to 150 cordobas. This allows poor households to meet their most basic food needs until the primera season begins. An increase in migration is therefore expected in March.

For those households without migrating opportunities, other livelihood strategies include employment in the plantain factories, the sale of firewood and citrus fruits, and domestic services.

Strategies such as food assistance and the provision of seeds and inputs will allow the population to have food while enabling the primera production, mainly in the dry zone and central large-scale agricultural areas. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry’s Libra por Libra (Pound for Pound) program will provide seeds and inputs to nearly 130,000 households, enabling them to produce their food.

Weather forecast*

In February, in the Pacific Region, monthly accumulated rainfall levels were between 0.1 mm and 4.4 mm, values lower than the historic norm, except for Leon and Rivas where the precipitation totals surpassed historic averages. In the Northern Region, monthly rainfall totals were between 0.3 mm and 30.3 mm, below the historic norm, except for Jinotega, which exceeded the norm with 30.3 mm. The Central Region registered monthly accumulated rainfall levels between 6.0 mm and 6.2 mm, and the Atlantic Autonomous Regions registered levels between 13.1 mm and 51.4 mm, values that were also below average.

According to the current El Niño phenomenon conditions and historic rainfall data from meteorological stations, rainfall is likely to be normal in the Pacific Region in March and April, and below average in May, which could influence the normal start of the primera sowing period. Similar conditions may occur in the Northern and Central Regions.

In RAAN, rainfall anomalies will likely be within the normal range, while in RAAS and eastern Rio San Juan Department, rainfall during April and May could likely be below average, thus having a similar impact on the beginning of the primera planting. In April, it is very likely that sporadic rainstorms will occur in the Pacific and Northern regions and western parts of the Central Region.

*This section is prepared by INETER, Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios Territoriales (Nicaraguan Institute for Territorial Studies).