FEWS NET Monthly Report for Chad covering the period Nov 2006 to Dec 2006.

CHAD
Monthly Food Security Update
December 2006

 

The food security situation in Chad indicates generally good current and projected food availability, except for Kanem, where poor production and low food availability will likely cause earlier than normal food insecurity for local populations. Despite good overall food availability, structural problems are likely to impede food access among some populations.

Deteriorating security conditions in conflict areas is raising concerns over the food security of Sudanese refugees, IDPs and host communities. The recent looting of food supplies from Ab?ch?'s main logistics base for humanitarian organizations has reduced food availability for displaced populations, and unsafe conditions in Phase IV areas have forced organizations to relocate much of their staff, reducing relief efforts and threatening humanitarian pipelines.  Continued mobilization and attacks by rebel forces and counter-offensives by government troops will likely cause the deteriorating security situation to persist.
 
Nutritional conditions in most refugee and IDP camps are still relatively good. However, there have been some reported cases of malnutrition in the Gaga and Amnabak camps.

Seasonal calendar

 

National food availability

Crop production

In general, grain production estimates point to good to excellent overall food availability. Based on the nationwide average, net annual per capita production this season is roughly 196 kg/person/year, well above the national grain consumption standard of 159 kg/person/year. The country's Sahelian zone is showing a sizeable overall surplus, estimated to cover up to 18 months of grain needs in some areas.  The Sudanian zone is estimated to have produced enough to meet consumption needs until the next harvest, though there are disparities among different regions of the country. In the structurally-deficient Kanem region, for example, populations produced an average of only 15 kg/person/year, or one month of coverage for annual grain needs. Logone Occidental and Moyen Chari, where local production is estimated to cover between 8 and 9 months of grain needs, may also experience increased food insecurity during this year's lean period.  Production estimates for the rest of the country indicate self-sufficient or surplus grain availability (Figure 1). 

Figure 1.  Local production measured in number of months of consumption
(2006-07 season)

Food reserves

Relatively large end-of-season stocks remain in food security reserve, despite the release of much of the inventory to assure price stability on the country's major grain markets throughout the entire lean period. This flow of stocks onto the market reduced traditional draw-downs on food security reserves for social marketing programs during the lean period.  As of November, the level of the National Food Security Reserve was estimated at 10,167 MT (MT) of grain. Moreover, on-farm reserves are being rebuilt despite current threats to harvesting activities in areas of fighting in the eastern part of the country. Efforts are also underway to rebuild the food stocks for humanitarian organizations' refugee and IDP programs, following the looting of 483 MT of food from the Ab?ch? logistics base and destruction of the Rubb Halls. Market inventories are relatively large, but security pressure in the eastern part of the country is raising concerns over possible disruptions in inter-zonal grain flows.

 

General conditions in refugee areas and host communities

Food situation

Despite a relatively encouraging production forecast for ongoing off-season production, structural problems threaten grain access and could perpetuate pockets of food insecurity.

a) Areas with poor coverage of local food needs

Kanem's estimated grain production this year shows a coverage deficit of close to 11 months, forcing the local population to turn to various survival strategies (animal production, craft-making, small-scale trading activities and out-migration to large cities for employment) unusually early in an attempt to improve their food access. As Logone Occidentale and Moyen Chari both report relatively good food availability, any food insecurity problems will likely present themselves during the normal lean period. Food economies in these regions are grounded in strategies combining production of cash crops (cotton, groundnuts and cowpeas) with employment in agro-processing plants and oil fields to generate extra income.

b) Areas of fighting

Expected surplus availability in areas such as Wadi Fira, Ouaddai and Salamat is currently threatened by unstable security conditions. Widespread violence in this part of the country is curtailing harvesting activities, affecting production of off-season crops and significantly slowing inter- and intra-zonal grain flows. In addition, the looting of 483 MT of food and non-food supplies, valued at close to US $1,300,000, from humanitarian warehouses in Ab?ch?, are compromising food and other humanitarian supplies availability for Sudanese refugees and Chadian IDPs. An effort to replenish these ransacked food stores has recently been mounted, but current security pressure along main arteries linking the logistics base and hub (in Ab?ch?) with refugee and IDP camps could cut the supply pipeline of these humanitarian organizations. Moreover, recent intercommunity conflicts, which have displaced tens of thousands of residents of Sila Department, have caused many IDPs to lose most of their harvest for lack of appropriate security measures.

Thus, food security is precarious and may deteriorate further for many residents in deficit production areas and populations caught in areas of fighting, depending on their access to outside (humanitarian) support and their own coping strategies. 

Health and nutritional conditions

On the whole, the nutritional situation across the country is encouraging. According to the latest nutritional survey, released in November, 10 of the 12 Sudanese refugee camps had global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates of less than 10 percent. Camps in Southern Chad had even lower rates (0.63 percent in Amboko, for example). The overall GAM rate for recent IDPs (in Habil? and Goz Beida) is estimated at 7.5 percent. However, the Amnabak and Gaga camps had rather high GAM rates: 11.2 percent and 12.0 percent, respectively. Thus, it is important to continue to closely monitor the nutritional situation in these latter two camps.

Security conditions

The security situation remains tense due to continued attacks and counter-attacks by rebel forces and government troops. This, along with a persistent threat of violence along the main arteries between the logistics base and hub for humanitarian organizations in Ab?ch?, has created a climate of insecurity.  As a result, a number of humanitarian organizations have cut back their staff and limited their activities to essential services. There remains general uncertainty with respect to security conditions in these areas due to the high level of mobilization by rebel groups in the Eastern part of the country and the preparations for counter-offensives by government troops.  Such security problems could interfere with the free movement of people and goods and affect the volume of aid delivered to the more than 300,000 Sudanese refugees and IDPs in eastern Chad.

Food access

TRENDS IN PRICES FOR GRAIN AND SHEEP

1. Grain prices

 The nation's four main grain markets illustrate the varying degrees of security pressure in different parts of the country. In the South, where there are less security issues, prices for pearl millet (the nation's staple grain crop) on the Moundou and Sarh markets are down 13 percent and 16 percent, respectively. These falling prices are attributed to relatively large trader inventories and regular shipments of fresh produce to these markets. In contrast, markets in Chad's Sahelian zone reacted to varying degrees to security problems (disruptions in communications, restrictions dictated by the state of emergency) with a 4 percent rise in prices in N'Djamena and a 29 percent price hike in Ab?ch? (Figure 2).

Figure 2.  Average monthly millet prices on Chad's four largest markets (Dec 2005 to Dec 2006)
 
Source: SIM (Market Information System); Analyses by FEWS NET Chad

A comparison with market prices at the same time last year indicates an across-the-board 8 percent to 14 percent increase in prices on all four markets. Current prices for staple grain crops are also 11 percent to 34 percent above the five-year average for this time of year on three of the four markets, except for Ab?ch?, where prices are slightly (4 percent) below the five-year average.  (Note: price data for December for all four markets comes from a single observation, which may skew results for the month as a whole.)

Terms of trade are in favor of herders, despite higher millet prices.

As of December 6, 2006, terms of trade for millet/sheep were still in favor of herders, despite a small rise in millet prices (Figure 3).  The increased millet prices come in the wake of the disruption in grain flows out of the capital due to security problems.  This increase was offset by a relatively large hike in sheep prices in anticipation of  the upcoming Christmas, New Year's and Tabaski holidays (the Feast of the Sheep), which is a high-demand period.

Figure 3.  Terms of trade for sheep/millet on the N'Djamena market (Dec 2005 to Dec 2006)
 
Source: SIM (Market Information System); Graphic by FEWS NET Chad

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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