The food security outlook for Mali is generally good. Food is readily available in most parts of the country and markets across Mali have ample grain supplies. Retail course grain prices are currently stable on markets across the regional capitals, after edging upward in January with the first round of procurements for the replenishment of government and private grain reserves. Prices overall are lower than at the same time last year and below the five-year average for this time of year.

The lean period for pastoral populations has begun, with pasture and water resources growing increasingly scarce between now and the beginning of the rainy season in June. This year’s lean period is, however, expected to be easier than usual, with generally good carrying capacity for migratory grazing lands following last year’s strong rainy season.

Seasonal calendar

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Current food security situation

Household food security in nearly all parts of Mali is satisfactory. Most households report still having access to regular grain supplies on markets around the country. Grain prices are stable or trending downwards and, in general, are lower than at the same time last year and below the five-year average for this time of year. These trends have bolstered the purchasing power of grain buying/consumer households. Given current prices and market supplies, grain shortages are not expected prior to the next harvest. Livestock markets also show stable animal availability, with prices fluctuating according to the type of animal and the market in question.

The combination of good harvests and positive trends on grain and livestock markets points to a stable food security situation for the remainder of this year in all parts of the country.

2006/07 off-season crops

A look at the progress of the 2006/07 growing season for off-season crops shows farmers still busy planting both market garden and grain crops. In addition, off-season rice crops in the Baguineda Irrigation District (OPIB), the Office du Niger (ON) Irrigation District in Ségou and the Sélingué Rural Development District (ODRS), Mali’s major off-season rice-growing areas, are in the tillering/height stage.

In the ON, which accounts for the majority of off-season rice production, the month of March was devoted to the pursuit of off-season rice-farming and market gardening activities, assessments of rainy season farming activities and marketing operations. Preliminary figures for the “winter” growing season put the total crop area planted at 76,659 hectares, compared with last season’s 73,879 hectares. Output for these areas is estimated at 439,622 metric tons (MT), compared with 437,622 MT for the previous season.

Planting and transplanting of off-season rice and truck crops continues in off-season production areas. As of March 20, farmers growing off-season rice crops had planted 433 hectares of seedbeds which, could be transplanted into 8,660 hectares of rice crops. 5,211 hectares of off-season rice had already transplanted toward the end of March, compared with 5,180 hectares at the same time last year. As of the end of the reporting period, 5,050 hectares of land had been planted in market gardening crops, compared with 5,766 hectares at the same time last year. Off-season rice crops are in the transplanting and early tillering stages, while certain market garden crops are already in the harvesting stage.

On the whole, plant health conditions are relatively good in all off-season cropping areas. However, measures are being taken to prevent damage to off-season crops by grain-eating birds.

Conditions in pastoral areas

The lean period is already underway in pastoral areas, with the condition of pasture resources steadily deteriorating as the period progresses. This is normally a difficult time of year for livestock, until the beginning of the rains in June/July, and many animal herds are heavily concentrated in the South, were good grazing conditions remain.

Animal watering conditions are still satisfactory in the northern reaches of Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal and in the vicinity of year-round watering holes. Most seasonal lakes, ponds and small streams have begun to dry up, which is normal for this time of year. Animals are watering themselves at rivers, wells, drain traps, seasonal lakes, boreholes, retention dams and irrigation canals. Animal health conditions are relatively good and expected to remain stable thanks to the good pasture resources following last year’s good rainy season (July through October).

On the whole, as of the end of March, the condition of vegetation in all parts of the country was below-average and poorer than at the same time last year (Figure 1). Despite the lag in the growth of new vegetation this year serious problems attributable to a shortage of pasture are not expected.

Figure 1. Pasture production (NDVI) as of March 31, 2007
FULL-SIZE IMAGE March 20-31, 2007	FULL-SIZE IMAGE March 20-31, 2006	FULL-SIZE IMAGE March 20-31, 1999/2003 avg	FULL-SIZE IMAGE
FEWS NET/Mali; Source: NASA-USGS

Trends on grain markets

Grain markets throughout the country show a normal supply of crops, and given current inventories of domestic grain markets, no grain shortage in the run-up to the next harvest (October 2007) is expected.

Figure 2. Trends in average millet prices on retail markets in the city of Ségou (2005-2007 and 2002-2006 average) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Graphic by FEWS NET/Mali; Source: OMA

Millet prices are currently either holding steady or beginning their usual seasonal upswing on certain markets, such as Ségou (Figure 2). Thus, current prices are considered affordable for consumers and high enough for farmers. Continuing price stability rather than a steady upward trend in prices would benefit farmers and consumers alike, as farmers would make a profit from their good harvest, bringing in a higher income than usual, and stable prices after the unusually steep price hikes in previous years would mean relatively better grain access for consumers.

The magnitude of normal seasonal upswings in prices over the next few months is largely dependent on conditions at the beginning of the rainy season. If the rains begin on schedule, any hikes in prices will be minor, with the opposite true in the event of a delay in the onset of the rainy season.

Current conditions indicate a likely continuation of current price trends throughout the 2006/07 marketing season, with farm-gate and consumer prices for millet edging up slightly but remaining below price levels for last year, as well as the five-year average.