Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Tanzania

• Food availability in markets remains stable across the country. However, as the lean period sets in many farming households are depleting their maize, bean, sorghum, millet, and rice stocks to obtain cash for farm operations (land preparations, planting, and fertilizer application in unimodal areas and weeding and fertilizer top dressing in bimodal areas).

• October and November wholesale market prices for main staple foods, such as maize, beans, and rice, have continued to increase and remain above the average. These increases are likely due to high fuel prices that have caused high transport costs. Higher prices are likely to limit food access, especially for low-income households in both rural and urban areas. In the 22 districts that are already moderately food insecure (Figure 1) due to floods or an early end of rains that caused a poor masika crop performance during the last rainy season, food access is likely to be stressed.

• The vuli season, which contributes 30 percent of total production in bimodal areas, has performed well in Lake Victoria zone and northwestern areas, facilitating planting and good crop progress to date in these areas. However, in Kilimanjaro, Arusha, and Tanga regions, the vuli rains have been below-average and will likely reduce crop production, except in irrigated areas such as Rombo and parts of Moshi rural districts.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Current food security situation

Food availability in markets remains stable across the country. On-farm stocks in rural areas are diminishing as the lean period has begun in areas that have no perennial food crops (bananas) or tubers (cassava, yams, and sweet potatoes). Many farmers have had to sell their stocks to get cash for farm operations (land preparations, planting, and fertilizer application in unimodal areas, and weeding and fertilizer top dressing in some bimodal areas that received vuli rains). Food access in localized areas of the 22 districts that were affected by floods or an early end of rains in unimodal areas and poor masika rain performance in bimodal areas during 2007 continues to be stressed.

The November wholesale market prices for main staple foods, including maize, beans, and rice, have continued to increase above normal (see Figure 3 at the end of this report). Food price increases are likely to have been caused by high fuel prices that resulted in increased transport costs. Price increases may also be related to government interventions in the marketing systems for agriculture produce to promote the use of standard measures and packaging (such as leveled bags that carry five tins [20-liter containers] instead of the heaped bags, or lumbesa, which carry seven tins) at the farm gate. Local government levies are paid in the originating district and are charged per bag. As a result of this intervention and the increased transport cost, transaction costs have increased for food commodities that are translating into increased consumer prices. Finally, inflation is also contributing to increased consumer prices.

The above-average prices are likely to limit food access, especially for low-income households in both rural and urban areas. Food access is likely to worsen particularly during the November to February hunger period, especially in areas that experienced poor vuli-season crop performance in 2007.

Perennial crops are progressing well throughout the country. Bananas and tubers are at different growth stages between planting and maturity, but are sufficiently available in markets across the country. However, the bulkiness and high perishability of these crops limits their movement from the main surplus producing areas (Mbeya, Kilimanjaro, Kagera, Arusha, Mara, and Kigoma) to the deficit areas where they could cushion the impact of the above-average cereal prices.

In pastoral areas, pasture and forage conditions are normal for this time of the year. Water availability and livestock body conditions are average. According to the Livestock Early Warning System’s (LEWS) forecast, forage conditions are expected to decline in most pastoral areas of northern and central Tanzania over the next two months. Northwestern Tanzania will continue to benefit from good to normal forage conditions. In contrast, most of northern Tanzania, bordering Kenya, is expected to face poor forage conditions. Until the masika rains start in March, livestock movements across the regions in search of pasture are expected, and food security in pastoral households will be stressed.

Figure 2. Precipitation anomaly (mm), October 1 to December 31, 2007

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Seasonal progress

The October 2007 to January 2008 vuli rains in the bimodal areas have performed well in Lake Victoria zone and Kigoma Region, but have been below normal in the northern and northeastern areas (Kilimanjaro, Arusha, and Tanga regions) where reduced crop production is likely (Figure 2). These rains failed in lowland areas. The vuli season contributes an estimated 30 percent of total crop production in bimodal rainfall areas, and thus localized crop losses are likely to cause some food insecurity.

In contrast, good vuli rains around the Lake Victoria zone have facilitated crop growth. Field reports indicate harvesting of beans is ongoing, and maize is at tasseling stage.

The msimu rains which normally begin mid-November in the unimodal areas have picked up. However, with the exception of Ruvuma, Sumbawanga, and Mbeya, where normal to above-normal rains have fallen, other unimodal areas have experienced below normal rains (Figure 2).

Markets, trade and food access

All main markets across the country are well supplied with food. Road works, including repairs made following heavy rains in 2007, have facilitated the movement of food from surplus to deficit areas, including areas in neighboring countries. However, since August 2007 the prices of staple food commodities have continued to increase above normal compared to the five-year average price (Figure 3). The highest prices recorded for maize and beans in November 2007 were in markets bordering DRC and Burundi. Field reports indicate that there are significant flows of food commodities to those countries.

November maize prices increased compared to the previous month, except in Bukoba market where prices have stabilized due to increased supplies from the ongoing vuli harvest in the area. As maize represent the main source of carbohydrates for most households across the country, high prices have a significant impact on food access, especially among low-income households. Households that normally depend on their own food production and have now turned to markets for their food as their stocks are depleted are likely to be the most affected. The majority of these households are concentrated in the 22 districts that are currently moderately food insecure (in yellow in Figure 1).

Large traders purchase food in rural areas and move it to urban centers where there are storage facilities, and are less likely to move substantial stocks to supply the rural areas because there are only very limited storage facilities in rural areas. In addition, rural households cannot afford to purchasing large quantities at any given time.  The failure of the vuli crop in much of northern and northeastern Tanzania and poor forecasts for the msimu rains in central Tanzania are likely to result in even more serious food insecurity, leaving poor households in these areas in need of assistance. The number of households, amount, and duration of this assistance will be determined through a rapid vulnerability assessment to be conducted in early March 2008.

Bean prices are also higher than normal in most markets compared to this time last year and the five-year averages. Prices in Kigoma are especially high. Beans represent the main source of protein for most households across the country. However, the prices of protein substitutes, such as dried sardines from Mwanza, Kigoma, and Rukwa, are also high. These high prices decrease access to protein, and are likely to have a negative impact on the nutritional quality of many household diets across the country until new harvests come in. New harvests are expected in January 2008 in bimodal areas that received vuli rains and March 2008 in unimodal areas.

Kigoma market has shown the highest overall price increases for all commodities. This increase is likely due to a combination of factors, including: increasing grain outflows due to high consumer price differentials between Tanzania and DRC, Burundi, and Zambia; increasing fuel prices, which have resulted in higher transportation costs; and a new Tanzania government intervention on crop produce marketing, requiring middlemen to purchase goods from farmers using standardized weights and measures.  By enforcing standard weights and measures, traders end up paying more to farmers, and pass part of that increased cost on to the consumer. Despite these price increases, the availability of alternative food crops (such as cassava, bananas, potatoes, and yams) is providing relief to poor, market-dependent households in Kigoma, whose food access would otherwise be severely constrained.

Figure 3. Maize wholesale prices in reference markets, in TZS/100kg FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: FEWS NET