The performance of the 2007 growing season was good in August, following the full resumption of rainfall after several dry spells in May, June and July. Farmers and traders have high expectations for the outcome of the season, and markets are reacting positively to the new trend. Prices of major staples are either the same or lower in August when compared to last year. Access of poor households to food is made easier by the low prices of cereals, tubers and pulses in rural and urban markets and the high seasonal demand for agricultural labor.

Extremely heavy rainfall has caused flooding in localized areas of the country this season, especially in August. Buildings, livestock and crops were washed away, and the flooding might reduce production in localized areas of the country (Kano, Jigawa and Kaduna). However, in the view of the full resumption of rainfall in most parts of the country as early as July, together with the generally good performance of crops in southern and central Nigeria throughout the season, prospects are good for excess production of major crops nationwide.

Relevant agencies such as the National Emergency Management Agency, Nigeria Meteorological Agency, Ministry of Environment and a host of international partners need to meet regularly at strategic periods to develop and communicate appropriate risk statements to policy and decision makers at various levels based on trends and predictions as well as mount pressure to ensure necessary monitoring and appropriate responses.

Performance of the rainy season

Rainfall had fully resumed across the country by the third dekad of July, after many dry spells between May and July. The dry spells resulted in rainfall deficits of over 100 mm in some areas and were responsible for temporary wilting and crop failure and delayed planting. According to the Kano Agricultural Development Project (ADP), about 60 percent of the season’s planting was delayed by the dry spell; planting resumed fully in first week of July. In other parts of Northern Nigeria, these delays are expected to translate into localized delays in harvests of some cereal and cash crops (millet, sorghum, maize and rice) in many states, such as Jigawa, Kaduna, Yobe, Borno. Farmers have been planting early maturing cereal and cash crops since July, following localized cases of crop failures (Kano).

Since the first dekad of August, rainfall has been abundant and evenly distributed in most of Northern Nigeria, and temperature and humidity conditions have been favorable to crop production. By the end of August, areas where there had been rainfall deficits now had surpluses of over 200 mm. Heavy precipitation has triggered flooding in about 12 states in northern and southern Nigeria. The states include Lagos, Ogun, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Bauchi, Plateau, Nasarawa, Niger, Kebbi and Sokoto. A substantial extent of farmland was submerged, resulting in considerable loss of crops and livestock. Generally, the number of people affected by displacement, loss of crops, homes, livestock and other assets as well as the loss of income opportunities runs in hundreds of thousands. Urban centers are also affected. Over 1,000 residents of Abeokuta, the capital of Ogun State, South West Nigeria, were displaced by a similar flood.

The Cumulative Rainfall Estimate ( 1st dekad April-2nd dekad August, figures 1 and 2) shows that, despite moderate deficits with respect to the average, rainfall conditions are favorable in most of the northern and central areas of the country. According to the Water Requirement satisfaction Index (WRSI), millet conditions vary significantly across the country, with some areas indicating poor or failed crops (figures 3 and 4).

Figure 1. Cumulative rainfall estimates – 1st dekad April – 2nd dekad of August FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 2. Rainfall estimates, anomaly with average   FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Figure 3. Millet conditions at the end of the 2nd dekad of August, according to WRSI FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 4. Current millet conditions at the end of the 2n dekad of August, compared to the average (WRSI anomaly) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: Regional West Africa FEWS NET Scientist

No nationwide crop assessment has been conducted following the flooding. However, despite the dry spells encountered at the beginning of the season and the excessive flooding in August, a bumper harvest is still possible. These expectations are based on the good performance of most crops after the dry spell, regular rainfall in most parts of the country since July, the use of early maturing varieties by farmers since in August. However, the combined impact of localized long dry spells and recent flooding might cause localized deficits throughout the country.

Rainfall is expected to be heavy across the country in September. Precipitations have been heavy along the river Niger upstream of Nigeria. Consequently, more water is expected to flow, thus making flooding more likely. Communities located near streams and rivers such as Niger, Benue, Kaduna and Ogun are particularly at risk. However, the excess water might create favorable conditions for cultivating flood recession crops and legumes.

Crop performance

In some northern states, such as Plateau, Kaduna, Kogi, Benue , Kwara, Niger and Nassarawa, harvests of maize, yam, cassava, groundnut and both sweet and Irish potatoes are in progress. Harvesting of early maturing varieties of millet has commenced in some states (Kano and Katsina) but full harvesting of millet will commence at the end of September and continue through October.

There were incidences of stem borer infestations in maize and rice crops across the northern states. In Kano (Tsanyawa and Bagwai), millet and groundnut crops were attacked by aphids, stem borers and army worms. Locust attacks affected millet and sorghum in many other northern states. Although the severity of the attacks have required replanting in a few areas, the impact of these reported cases of locust invasion and pest infestation remains minimal with no significant impact on overall production and yield, in part because of the limited areas affected and the preventive and curative measures put in place by state and local governments as soon as the incidence was reported.

At the state and local levels, government response measures include, among others:

• Supply and distribution of inputs, such as seeds and chemicals, at a 40 percent subsidy to all the farmers in the state, irrespective of whether or not there is an attack of pests and diseases. Pesticides such as Lambda and Cypermethrine were distributed.

• Training on safe handling and use of agrochemicals was conducted for the farmers at the farms.

• Use of traditional system of allowing rainfall to flush out the larvae of the stem borer. The larvae are then picked off the leaves after the rain. This has always proved to be very useful in reducing the incidence of stem borer attack on millet.

Agricultural inputs

Sales of fertilizer by governmental agencies and in open markets continued in August, when the second application of fertilizer takes usually place. Supplies of subsidized fertilizer have been limited, and most farmers are resorting to markets in order to buy fertilizer at a price higher than last year, although the quantities available greatly vary from one state to another and from one month to another

The demand for early maturing cowpea seeds is high. Governmental agencies are advising farmers to plant cowpea in areas where other crops failed following dry spells in May, June and July and the recent flooding. The high demand has resulted in high prices of cowpea seeds.

Pastoral conditions

Pasture production is generally good across the country. However the long dry spells have delayed pasture growth in localized areas of northern Nigeria. The low supply of fodder when compared to the demand is triggering an increase in the cost of fodder. Households have to resort to feed in order to maintain their animals in good condition. In order to compensate for the financial investment, pastoral households are selling their animals at prices higher than normal. Prices are expected to fall slightly in September following improvements in water and pasture conditions. Pastoral households continue their movement northward where pasture is now available. The transhumance is made easier this year by the few incidences of tse tse fly reported so far in central and northern Nigeria.

Market trends in August

Prices of major staples are either stable or lower when compared to last month and last year at the same period. The market is reacting positively to the good performance of the current season after the dry spells in June and July and the adequate availability of food in urban and local markets throughout the year. Low prices of major staples have improved household food security.

Generally, maize prices this year are slightly lower compared to prices in August 2006. In Kano, however, current prices are about half the price at this time in 2006. The price of maize has been low since the last harvest. The collection and influx of maize to Dawanau market from various parts of the country might explain the low price in Kano. In some parts of southern Nigeria, some reduction in maize production is being anticipated this season as farmers devote more time and resources to cassava production due to the continued low producer price for maize. The low maize prices are derived from two factors: the slow recovery of the poultry sector, which until the avian flu crisis in 2006 had been one of the major consumers of maize; and partly by the temporary suspension by the National Strategic Grains Reserve in building up maize reserves, due to transition issues in government between May and July.

Millet prices are stable and lower on average (by about 14 percent) than prices at this time last year. Sorghum prices are also generally stable, and current prices are on average about 11 percent lower than in August 2006. The price of sorghum has however steadily increased in Maiduguri, a major food market in northeastern Nigeria bordering Niger and Chad, from N35/kg in August 2006 to N50/kg in August 2007. Continued industrial demands, inter alia, may explain this continued increase in price.

Prices of cowpea are stable and lower than at this time last year across most locations, excepting Maiduguri and Gombe, where prices are over 100 percent and 40 percent higher, respectively. Rice prices are also stable across most locations excepting Maiduguri, where there has been a 22 percent increase in August. On the average, current prices of locally milled rice are also about 17 percent higher than prices in August 2006. Cassava prices are also stable and have remained lower than prices at this time last year.

Live chicken prices have increased on average by 16 percent. In the wake of the avian flu crisis, this increase indicates the growth in consumer confidence and poultry consumption, which are necessary for the recovery of the poultry sector and stabilization of maize prices

Figure 5. Retail prices of select commodities in some urban markets in Nigeria
Maize FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Millet FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Sorghum FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Cowpea FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Rice FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Cassava (gari) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Nigeria

Impact of the season and market conditions on poor household food security

The grain reserve of most rural households is lasting longer this year than in a normal year as a result of 2 consecutive good harvests. Most better off and medium income households are not resorting to markets, owing to the importance of their family reserve and relatively important resources that enable them to grow offseason crops. Poor households who are now resorting to markets are benefiting from favorable market conditions (low prices and ample availability in local and urban markets).

Combined with the full resumption of rainfall in September and the good prospect of the season in most parts of the country, this situation has been reinforcing food security conditions during the lean period. The erratic nature of rainfall in May and June did not result in a major increase in prices, and access of poor household to basic foods has remained good. The quick and full resumption of rainfall in mid July and the arrival of new cereal, tuber and cash crops in the markets helped raise household and trader expectations about the outcome of the season. As a result, stocks in the markets were reinforced by the arrival of new maize, groundnut, cowpea, cassava in the markets, and the offloading of old stocks by traders in anticipation of the new harvests. Consequently, the prices of both new and old staple foods have kept low. Markets conditions are favorable during this lean period when compared to conditions at the same period last year, and poorer households as a result are generally more food secure. The arrival of new staples in the market and the low prices of both new and old food have helped provide more diversity of food to households and may have implications for improved nutrition

The harvest of new crops is a source of small agricultural jobs and income for poor households who use their labor force for harvesting, drying wet maize and transporting crops to markets.

The combined impact of low prices, access to food and to income earning opportunities is contributing to the reinforcement of food security conditions of poor households in Nigeria.

Response measures and programs

In response to the flooding, there are several intervention programs that have been put in place by federal, state and local governments to bring the situation under control and minimize the potential losses of life, crops and other assets for farmers. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) is warning farmers, especially in downstream communities, to expect more floods in September and to take precautionary measures.

The Government of Nigeria, through NEMA and related agencies at the state level and other humanitarian organizations such as Red Cross, international agencies and individuals, have been providing assistance to affected persons in the different camps and areas. There are, however, indications that more assistance is urgently needed to prevent further deaths and deterioration of health and food security conditions in flood-affected areas. The National Assembly House Committee on Disasters called on the Red Cross and NEMA to come to the aid of the disaster-affected people and communities.

In June 2007 IRIN (the the humanitarian news and analysis service of OCHA) and Save the Children UK (SCUK) reported that about 10 percent of malnourished children admitted in therapeutic feeding centers in Niger had come from Nigeria. This information generated a lot of discussions and concerns among various national and international stakeholders. Evidence from MSF admission records and the findings of an MSF July Mission to Maradi and Dan Issa in Niger contributed immensely to these concerns. SCUK reported that most of the Nigerian children involved come from Local Government Areas and communities in Katsina and Jigawa states bordering Niger. The need to have a better understanding of the nutritional situation of children in these areas informed the Joint SC UK/FEWS NET study that was implemented in collaboration with Federal Government of Nigeria, represented by the Federal Ministry of Health, National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA), National Population Commission and National Bureau of Statistics. Previous surveys in Nigeria such as the National Food Consumption and Nutrition Survey 2001-03 and the 2003 National Demographic Health Survey had shown that prevalence rates of chronic malnutrition, underweight and acute malnutrition are very high in the dry savanna zone, covering states in the extreme north bordering the Republic of Niger.