Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (July to September) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2. Most-likely estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (October to December) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3. Worst-case estimated food security scenario, fourth quarter 2007 (October to December) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• Food security is currently normal for this time of year, except for poor households in the south. The hunger season concludes in mid-August when the primera harvests and the postrera planting start, causing food availability and income generation to improve at the household level. Food insecurity will deteriorate in the south for nearly 63,500 people due to significant losses in the primera crops and a below-normal demand for unskilled labor.

• In the most-likely scenario, a slight improvement in food security is expected from October to December for most poor households in the country. Food availability and household income will improve as a result of the high demand for unskilled labor in the agriculture and agro-industrial sectors due to an expected satisfactory rainy season. However, the improvements will not be sufficient for the 63,500 highly food insecure people in the south to overcome their food access difficulties, and they will continue to depend upon food assistance until the end of December.

• A worst-case scenario from October to December in Honduras could result from either hurricanes and torrential rains or rainfall deficits. Both would severely impact the postrera staple cereal production and significantly reduce the demand for unskilled labor. As a result, food security would deteriorate for more than 74,000 staple cereal subsistence producers and wage earners throughout the country.

Current food security conditions, July to September, 2007

Nearly 63,500 people from poor households of southern Honduras are experiencing high food insecurity due to the structural poverty that characterizes this region. This year, food security conditions have been aggravated by crop losses in the 2006/07 agricultural-cycle harvests; increases in the price of the basic food basket caused by the high international maize price; and erratic and insufficient rainfall in June and July 2007 that have caused losses of more than 50 percent in the primera crops and a below-normal demand for unskilled labor. These families have been receiving food aid since April, which has significantly contributed to their maintaining sufficient levels (in terms of quantity and quality) of food consumption.   

The agriculture cycle is proceeding normally in the rest of the country, with an adequate rainfall for a good primera harvest and a high demand for unskilled labor for the production of the postrera staple cereals. However, the increase in the price of the basic food basket since November 2006 implies that poor households experienced a minimum food deficit of at least 30 percent when they have to purchase all of their food on the market. In urban areas where there are no seasonal variations, this deficit remains stable all year long; in rural areas it depends on the number of days worked by the head of the family, while other members contribute to growing maize and beans for their household consumption.

Food availability has been improving since July with the harvest of fruits and wild vegetables such as avocados, anonas, nances, green squashes and loroco flowers, and from August with the harvest of green grains (corn and by-products and green beans). Agricultural employment increases by the end of August and beginning of September for the primera harvests and postrera plantings.

During the rainy season, children under five are affected by the typical contagious infective diseases, such as respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses, contributing to weight loss and stunted growth, as well as increasing household expenses on visits to health centers and treatments.

In early September, Hurricane Felix struck Honduras after initially making landfall in Nicaragua. The hurricane had weakened significantly by the time it entered Honduran territory, but still had a significant impact through the damage caused by wind and flooding. More than 30,000 people had to be evacuated in the east, and the hurricane damaged about 3,000 hectares of agricultural land. Rehabilitation activities continue, and households may be able to re-plant their postrera crop if floodwaters recede.

Most-likely food security scenario, October to December 2007

The most-likely food security scenario from October to December is characterized by a normal to above-normal rainfall regime that would enable a higher-than-normal production of maize and beans and an increase in the quality and quantity of food consumption. The incidence of contagious infective diseases remains stable compared to the previous quarter.

By the end of September, the primera maize and bean production will be available in the national markets and will contribute to stabilizing the price of maize and the basic food basket. The harvesting and processing of coffee, sugar cane, melon and shrimp will start in October. This will significantly increase the demand for unskilled labor, thus increasing household income and food access. Moreover, poor households in rural areas will have access to staple cereals from the primera harvest, and in November they will be able to consume green grains such as corn and green beans from the postrera harvest.

The current high levels of food insecurity will improve in the south and in the rest of the country by mid-October or the beginning of November due to the demand for labor in agro-industry and the availability of green grains from the postrera harvest. Even so, the southern municipalities will still face food deficits, and it will be necessary to extend the distribution of food aid for approximately 63,500 staple-cereal subsistence producers and day-laborers until December.

Worst-case food security scenario, October to December 2007

In the worst-case scenario, countries throughout the Caribbean will receive excessive rainfall from mid-September to mid-October due to high cyclone activity, with an increased risk of hurricanes. This would delay the beginning of the harvesting of sugarcane, melon and coffee, and would cause losses in the postrera maize and beans crops, leading to below-normal harvests in December. In the event of hurricanes, there would also be losses due to the landslides. Excessive rainfall would increase the prevalence of contagious infectious diseases. A variation for this scenario could be a significant deficit of rainfall nationally, with an impact on labor availability and crop production similar to the one produced by excessive rainfall, except for the reduction of the diseases typical of the hurricane season.

Additionally, in the worst-case scenario the demand for maize for ethanol production may increase further from the United States and other countries around the world. This could reduce the availability of maize for global exports, causing an increase in the maize price and in the cost of the basic food basket in Honduras.

Around 74,500 people from poor households would experience a reduction of income and food availability in this scenario. Own-production of green grains, such as corn and green beans that are consumed from the end of November, would decrease, as would the production of dry grains that are usually ready by mid-December. The high cost of the basic food basket would also influence the quality and quantity of foods consumed by poor households. The number of children under five years of age that are underweight (weight/age) and suffering from acute malnutrition (weight/size) would increase, and there would be significant migration to urban centers and other countries.

In this scenario, the government could respond by releasing the strategic reserve of maize and beans onto the national market to prevent speculation and to stabilize the prices of basic foods.