Conflict, population returns exacerbate food insecurity during hunger season

Figure 1. Southern Sudan areas of concern FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Food security in northern parts of southern Sudan has been stable since the October 2006 harvest. However, food security conditions are likely to deteriorate as the April/May to August hunger season progresses, particularly for poor and recently resettled households in areas affected by civil insecurity, cattle raiding and where population resettlement is significant. These areas are found in: Aweil East, West, North and South counties in Northern Bahr El Gazal State; Gogrial and Twic counties in Warab State; and Wuror, Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties in Jonglei State (figure 1).

In Gogrial County, Warab State, inter-ethnic conflict limited cultivation during the May to October 2006 cropping season, rendering a significant proportion of the counties’ households food insecure. In Bor, Diror, Pulchol, Wuror, and Nyirol counties, Jonglei State, the Government of South Sudan’s (GoSS) 2006 disarmament process has increased the population’s vulnerability to cattle raids from the neighboring Murle tribe of Pibor County, who are still armed. A series of cattle raids in March left 17 people dead, with 800 cattle looted. Cattle raids along the Kenya-Sudan border since December 2006 are aggravating tensions between the Toposa pastoralists of Sudan and the Turkana pastoralists of Kenya.

Civil insecurity has grown in Central and Eastern Equatoria states since January, following the interruption of peace talks between Uganda’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and the Ugandan government. The LRA abandoned the talks and retreated to the Central African Republic (CAR), attacking and looting communities, including parts of Magwi, Kajokeji, Yambio, Tambura and Torit counties, as they fled. The attacks have left up to 3,500 people displaced in Torit County alone since February. Though LRA-related insecurity is expected to decline if peace talks resume in mid-April, as scheduled, the LRA’s presence remains a significant threat to food security and overall stability in southern Sudan’s Equatoria states.

Delays in funding and other census preparations may lead to postponement of the scheduled November 2007 census to an unconfirmed date. Despite this delay, large-scale population returns of up to 500,000 people remain possible. A return of this magnitude will overload the already limited capacities that exist to accommodate returnees, and increase competition for scarce labor opportunities and off-farm food resources, such as fish and wild foods. The impact of such returns will be felt most in the densely populated areas of Northern Bahr El Gazal State and Gogrial and Twic counties in Warab States.  There are also about 250,000 Sudanese refugees in northern Uganda. The return of a significant proportion of these refugees to Central Equatoria (Juba, Magwi, Torit and Kajokeji counties), though unlikely due to LRA activity along the way, could further worsen food security conditions in these areas.

Increased population movements and access to previously inaccessible areas has triggered a seasonal outbreak of meningitis in eight states in southern Sudan. Vaccinations and treatment efforts are ongoing, though GoSS ministries and health agencies need to adopt longer-term solutions and advance preparedness efforts to combat this and other seasonal disease outbreaks.