(Edits)

By Andrew Heavens

KHARTOUM, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The departing commander of the U.N./African union peacekeeping force in Sudan's Darfur region this week said the area was no longer in a state of war.

The comments sparked criticism from Darfur rebels, who warned they were planning new attacks, and from activists, who said Martin Luther Agwai had misrepresented the situation.

Here are some questions and answers about Darfur:

WHY IS DARFUR IMPORTANT?

U.N. humanitarian chief John Holmes estimates up to 300,000 have died in the Darfur conflict and nearly 3 million people have been displaced. The conflict threatens peace between Sudan and neighbouring Chad and has destabilised Sudan at a time when the fragile 2005 peace deal that ended its two-decade north-south civil war is under pressure again due to disputes over land and oil.

HAS THE DARFUR CONFLICT ENDED?

The levels of violence and attacks in Darfur have fallen since the mass killings of 2003 and 2004. But that does not mean the conflict is over.

Since January, the rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) clashed with Sudan's army in and around the southern town of Muhajiriya in February; in settlements close to North Darfur's border with Chad in May; and most recently around Darfur's eastern boundary in early August.

Sudan's government maintains its military presence; JEM has heavily armed forces, while other rebel groups, predominantly factions of the insurgent Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), continue to hold territory in Darfur.

The Darfur crisis still had a serious impact on people on the ground. The United Nations says 137,819 people were driven from their homes by fighting in Darfur in the first six months of this year, on top of the 2.7 million already in camps.

WHAT IS THE CURRENT LEVEL OF VIOLENCE?

The joint U.N./African Union representative in Darfur, Rodolphe Adada, said some 2,000 people died in violent incidents in Darfur from the start of 2008 to March this year -- an average of around 130 a month.

Statistics collected online by Sudan expert Alex de Waal suggest 40 people were killed in July and just 16 in June.

Both sets of figures are challenged by activists who say the undermanned UNAMID peacekeeping force is too thinly spread to witness and report all clashes.

A significant proportion of the recent deaths have come in fighting between rival Arab tribes over water and land rights. Though not related to the Darfur uprising, the weapons that have flooded the area have exacerbated these traditional disputes.

WHY HAS THE DEATH TOLL FALLEN?

In the early days of the fighting, rebel groups worked together to mount coordinated attacks on government targets. But that cooperation disappeared as rebel groups splintered, often along tribal lines. Analysts say many SLA factions are simply too small and divided to mount serious campaigns and have concentrated on securing existing positions.

UNAMID's Agwai said even JEM now lacked the manpower to hold territory on its own after successful attacks. In this year's engagements in Muhajiriya and Umm Baru, JEM withdrew after early advances; it says voluntarily to protect civilians.

A level of inertia has set in on all sides of the conflict which has now dragged on without resolution for longer than World War Two. In many areas, Sudan's government and rebel groups have simply reached a stalemate.

Peacekeepers can take some of the credit for the lower figures, particularly through their patrols and presence in displacement camps. Civilians took shelter around UNAMID bases during the worst of this year's fighting.

The current rainy season, which wipes out roads from June to September, may also be behind the current lull.

WHAT COULD REIGNITE THE FIGHTING?

The worst threat could come from neighbouring Chad. The Darfur conflict, originally launched by rebels pressing Khartoum for better representation and development, has become entangled in N'Djamena's convoluted political scene.

Most analysts accept that Sudan and Chad have been fighting a sporadic proxy war in recent years, with Chad's political elite supporting and funding their ethnic kinsmen among the leadership of JEM. Any overt war between Sudan and Chad would pour fresh cash and conflict over the border into Darfur.

There may well be a resurgence of violence after the rainy season, as both JEM and Khartoum try and maximise territorial gains ahead of currently stalled negotiations in Qatar.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT?

Khartoum will wring out every ounce of propaganda it can out of Agwai's statements. State media have already been misquoting him saying peace has returned to Darfur and Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir has given the Nigerian general a medal. Rebels may try and prove him wrong by launching a token attack.

The real test of Agwai's line will come in the months ahead. If JEM and Sudan's government end up signing some sort of ceasefire and peace agreement in Doha, then the general will be remembered for his prescience. If not, his comments will go down as another of Darfur's false dawns. (Editing by Jon Hemming)

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