Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in May 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.

May saw a dramatic surge in Israeli-Palestinian and intra-Palestinian violence, with Hamas participating in both. In Gaza and border areas, Israeli air strikes and Palestinian rocket attacks left the ceasefire in ruins, while factional fighting in the territory continued throughout the month. In Lebanon, the worst internal fighting since the end of civil war in 1990 erupted as the army battled with the Islamist militant group Fatah al-Islam, killing over 80 and causing 25,000 Palestinians to flee the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp.

In Pakistan, instability and violence intensified as President Musharraf’s crisis deepened. Over 40 were killed in street violence as pro-government activists attacked opposition supporters of suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Hussain Chaudhry. Conflict also escalated in Ethiopia’s Ogaden region, where rebels claimed major victories against government troops.

The situation improved in Northern Ireland, where devolved power-sharing government returned under the leadership of First Minister Ian Paisley (DUP) and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness (Sinn Fein).

For June 2007, CrisisWatch identifies Pakistan as a Conflict Risk Alert, or situation at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month.

MAY 2007 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Ethiopia, Israel/Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Pakistan

Improved Situations
Northern Ireland (UK)

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Philippines, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Somaliland, Sudan, Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

JUNE 2007 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk
Pakistan

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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