Dakar/Brussels, 8 November 2007: To prevent a counter-revolution in Guinea, Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté must work for a democratic transition alongside civil society and political parties and get more international help.

Guinea: Change on Hold,* the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the risk of violent confrontation and new bloodshed in a country that is as fragile as ever. The popular movement that brought Kouyaté to power is splintering, giving the discredited President Conté and his clan opportunity to regain control. Kouyaté must urgently demonstrate that he is serious about changing how government operates.  For this he needs to work with civil society and political parties within Guinea, but he also needs help from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), donors and the two states with ties to the unreformed army, France and the U.S.

“Initial enthusiasm for Kouyaté has been replaced by doubt over the capabilities and will of the new government to break with the Conté system and seriously tackle the daily economic difficulties”, says Carolyn Norris, Crisis Group’s West Africa Project Director.

Between 137 and 183 people died during the January-February revolt, and over 1,500 were wounded. The protestors felt they had won a significant victory when Conté agreed to name an independent prime minister, but Kouyaté has yet to demonstrate that his way of governing is a real break from the past. Conté is exploiting popular disappointment to divide the revolution’s main actors in an effort to regain full power. Since he remains the constitutional leader, he can easily block Kouyaté and stall government action.

Free, fair and transparent legislative elections are needed in the next six months as a first step to dismantle Conté’s system through democratic means. But even before that, Kouyaté must broaden his government’s base by setting up a national dialogue to agree on the reform agenda. He should restructure his cabinet, ensure his actions are transparent and publicly explain his priorities. To bring an end to impunity, the government needs to ensure funding for the independent commission of inquiry into violence during the 2006-2007 protests. It must also open dialogue on security reform in order to contain the army.

Kouyaté should ask ECOWAS for men to fill out a mixed police-gendarmerie brigade in support of the commission of inquiry and a military mission to observe Guinean security forces during the elections. France and the U.S. should give the police and gendarmerie training and equipment, and donors should provide additional funding for elections.

“Without such measures Guinea’s political crisis will not end, and increased violence could set the stage for the discredited Conté regime to be fully restored, or a coup”, says François Grignon, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director.