Islamabad/Brussels, 11 December 2006: The Musharraf government’s appeasement of Taliban sympathisers has resulted in a base in Pakistan’s tribal areas that militants are using to stoke instability both at home and in neighbouring Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants,* the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines interlinked issues of governance, militancy and extremism in the Pashtun-majority Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It identifies the challenges the government faces in wresting control of these areas and the stakes for the U.S. and other Western countries.

“Over the past five years, the Musharraf government has tried first brute force, then appeasement. Both have failed”, says Samina Ahmed, Crisis Group’s South Asia Project Director. “Islamabad’s tactics have only emboldened the pro-Taliban militants”.

Since 2001, Taliban and other foreign militants have found shelter in FATA, using it to regroup, reorganise and rearm. Afghanistan is experiencing the most deadly insurgent violence in five years, much of it staged and launched from the border regions. The Musharraf government’s failure to extend its control over and provide good governance to its citizens in FATA has enabled this militancy to flourish.

The government, which made deals with the pro-Taliban groups in April 2004 in South Waziristan and on 5 September 2006 in North Waziristan, has released militants, returned their weapons and agreed to let foreign terrorists stay on a promise to give up violence. This has given pro-Taliban elements license to recruit and arm, resulting in a serious increase in cross-border attacks against U.S., NATO and Afghan forces.

President Musharraf has been reluctant to take more consequential action in the tribal belt because his government depends upon support from radical religious groups and parties which sympathise with the militants. However, it needs to institute broad political and economic measures to curb extremism, beginning by integrating FATA into the Northwest Frontier Province, developing its natural resources and spurring agriculture. It should disarm militants, shut down their training camps, and prosecute those responsible for killing civilians and officials, while opening FATA to the media and human rights monitors.

The U.S. and the EU should make continued economic and diplomatic support to Musharraf contingent not only on such actions but also upon his allowing free, democratic elections in 2007. “The U.S. and Europe need to realise that democratic, civilian government, not military rule, is their best and natural ally against extremism and terrorism”, says Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Director.

“These border areas are still run under colonial-era laws that make their people second-class citizens in Pakistan. Unless the government institutes real democratic change, extremism and terrorism will quickly overtake the entire region”, says Ahmed.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Taliban and other foreign militants, including al-Qaeda sympathisers, have sheltered since 2001 in Pakistan’s Pashtun-majority Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), seven administrative districts bordering on south eastern Afghanistan. Using the region to regroup, reorganise and rearm, they are launching increasingly severe cross-border attacks on Afghan and international military personnel, with the support and active involvement of Pakistani militants. The Musharraf government’s ambivalent approach and failure to take effective action is destabilising Afghanistan; Kabul’s allies, particularly the U.S. and NATO, which is now responsible for security in the bordering areas, should apply greater pressure on it to clamp down on the pro-Taliban militants. But the international community, too, bears responsibility by failing to support democratic governance in Pakistan, including within its troubled tribal belt.

The military operations Pakistan has launched since 2004 in South and North Waziristan Agencies to deny al-Qaeda and the Taliban safe haven and curb cross-border militancy have failed, largely due to an approach alternating between excessive force and appeasement. When force has resulted in major military losses, the government has amnestied pro-Taliban militants in return for verbal commitments to end attacks on Pakistani security forces and empty pledges to cease cross-border militancy and curb foreign terrorists.

The government reached accords with pro-Taliban militants in April 2004 in South Waziristan and on 5 September 2006 in North Waziristan. These were brokered by the pro-Taliban Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), the largest component of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA), the ruling six-party religious alliance in Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and Musharraf’s coalition partner in the Balochistan provincial government. Following the September accord, the government released militants, returned their weapons, disbanded security check posts and agreed to allow foreign terrorists to stay if they gave up violence. While the army has virtually retreated to barracks, this accommodation facilitates the growth of militancy and attacks in Afghanistan by giving pro-Taliban elements a free hand to recruit, train and arm.

Badly planned, poorly conducted military operations are also responsible for the rise of militancy in the tribal belt, where the loss of lives and property and displacement of thousands of civilians have alienated the population. The state’s failure to extend its control over and provide good governance to its citizens in FATA is equally responsible for empowering the radicals. The only sustainable way of dealing with the challenges of militancy, governance and extremism in FATA is through the rule of law and an extension of civil and political rights. Instead, the government has reinforced administrative and legal structures that undermine the state and spur anarchy.

FATA is tenuously governed because of deliberate policy, not Pashtun tribal traditions or resistance. Since 1947, Pakistan has ruled it by retaining colonial-era administrative and judicial systems unsuited to modern governance. Repressive structures and denial of political representation have generated resentment. To deflect external pressure to curb radicalism, the Musharraf government talks about reforms in FATA but does not follow through. Instead, appeasement has allowed local militants to establish parallel, Taliban-style policing and court systems in the Waziristans, while Talibanisation also spreads into other FATA agencies and even the NWFP’s settled districts.

It is equally important to generate broad-based economic development. Neglected for decades, FATA is one of Pakistan’s poorest regions, with high poverty and unemployment and badly under-developed infrastructure. Located astride the Afghanistan border and a major regional transit route, its economy is dependent on smuggling. Since the outbreak of the Afghan civil war, there has been enormous growth in drugs and weapons trafficking. Militancy and extremism in tribal agencies cannot be tackled without firm action against criminality. But for this, economic grievances must be addressed and the law of the land extended over and enforced in FATA.

RECOMMENDATIONS

To the Government of Pakistan:

1.  Integrate the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), following extensive consultations with local stakeholders, into Northwest Frontier Province as a Provincially Administered Tribal Area (PATA), under executive control of the province and jurisdiction of the regular provincial and national court system and with representation in the provincial legislature.

2.  Remove restrictions on political parties in FATA and introduce party-based elections for the provincial and national legislatures.

3.  Respect and implement Article 8 of the constitution, which voids any customs inconsistent with constitutionally guaranteed fundamental rights.

4.  Re-establish the writ of the state and counter militancy in FATA by:

(a)  disarming militants, shutting down terrorist training camps and ending the flow of money and weapons to and recruitment and training by Taliban and other foreign or local militants on Pakistani territory;

(b)  prosecuting those responsible for killing civilians and government officials; and

(c)  preventing militants from establishing parallel administrative structures, demolishing those that exit and prosecuting those who are delivering private justice.

5.  Generate employment in FATA by:

(a)  creating manufacturing/industrial units and providing technical assistance, subsidies and other incentives for agricultural activities;

(b)  developing the area’s natural resources, including minerals and coal; and

(c)  developing human resources by investing in education, including vocational training schools and technical colleges.

6.  Open FATA to the media and allow independent human rights monitors to investigate possible human rights violations and abuses by the civil administration or law-enforcement agencies.

To the Government of Afghanistan:

7.  Work with Pakistan and NATO-ISAF in the military-to-military Tri-Partite Commission to ensure greater coordination in curbing cross-border militancy.

To the United States and the European Union:

8.  Press the Pakistan government to take action against pro-Taliban elements in FATA and publish monthly NATO figures of cross-border incursions into Afghanistan to encourage it to do more on its side of the border.

9.  Make support for Reconstruction Opportunity Zones in the tribal belt conditional on steps by Pakistan to end Taliban-style parallel administrative and judicial structures and ensure participation of moderate stakeholders in identifying and implementing development projects.

10.  Press President Musharraf to allow free, fair and democratic elections in 2007 and give political and economic support for the process.

Islamabad/Brussels, 11 December 2006