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Bogota/Brussels, 8 January 2007: Bolivia’s first indigenous president, Evo Morales, will mark his first anniversary in office on 22 January 2007 amid rising civil unrest.
Bolivia’s Reforms: The Danger of New Conflicts,* the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, warns that growing instability could lead to future violence if leaders fail to negotiate an end to the current standoff. As this month’s first anniversary of Morales’s inauguration nears, three key issues are at the heart of the dispute: land reform, the workings of the constituent assembly, and regional autonomy, all of which are closely linked to the rivalry between the central government and the rich eastern lowlands where Bolivia’s oil, gas, and export-oriented agribusiness are based.
Morales is under pressure from his Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) to make good on campaign promises to support peasant families and indigenous community rights with redistribution of idle lands. Large landowners and their civic supporters fear that the government’s main goal is to seize all of their holdings for the benefit of hundreds of thousands of western highland peasants. Extremists from both sides of the east-west divide have perpetuated visions of the country and of these institutional reforms that are worlds apart.
“The political opposition and economic elites equate the proposed reforms with a threat to their way of life and are fighting to defeat them, while the Morales administration and MAS have pushed ahead without searching for compromises”, says Mark Schneider, Crisis Group’s Senior Vice President and Special Adviser on Latin America. “The two sides have to begin lowering the menacing rhetoric and raising the level of dialogue and mediation if the country hopes to avoid instability”.
Both sides should publicly condemn violence, the government should stop using attacks on elites to rally indigenous support, and the eastern region civic groups should stop their separatist threats. International mediators should be called on to help bridge the disputes at the constituent assembly, and to help wade through the complicated technical aspects of land management disputes.
“Only when these first steps are made will this government have a chance to move the country toward greater social cohesion, economic progress and equity”, says Mauricio Angel Morales, Crisis Group Colombia/Andes analyst. “Otherwise there is a real risk of Bolivia’s gradual disintegration”.
Kimberly Abbott (Washington) +1 202 785 1601
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*Read the full Crisis Group briefing on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org
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