Jakarta/Brussels, 9 September 2008: Three years after the Helsinki agreement between the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) to end a 30-year conflict, Aceh is tense in the lead-up to general elections in 2009.

Indonesia: Pre-Election Anxieties in Aceh, the latest update briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the sources of unease and how they are likely to play out in the political campaign.

“The immediate goal should be to ensure that the campaign is violence-free”, says John Virgoe, director of Crisis Group’s South East Asia Project, “but long-term, the need is for sustained international attention to Aceh, including international election monitoring, to ensure that the peace holds”.

The Indonesian military is worried about Partai Aceh, the GAM party, winning control of local legislatures and challenging Jakarta’s authority. Partai Aceh is worried about interference from Jakarta. Smaller parties are worried about intimidation from Partai Aceh. Many Acehnese are worried about criminality, much of it involving former GAM members. Everyone is worried about the health of the Aceh governor, a GAM leader with unparalleled ability to reach out to all political factions. He has been abroad since early August for medical treatment after apparently suffering a minor stroke.

Six local and 38 national parties are scheduled to compete in legislative elections in April 2009. In additional to interparty competition, which could turn ugly, and intra-GAM rifts, a long-simmering issue to create two new provinces within Aceh is heating up, with national parties in Jakarta sensing political advantage from taking sides.

The coming elections are also drawing attention to ongoing struggles between the central and provincial governments over what autonomy in the Helsinki agreement means in practice. Three issues are now on the table. The most important are about how the central government will consult with Aceh over policies and laws relating to it and what mechanisms will be put in place to resolve disagreements. There is also a battle over a position called Wali Nanggroe, literally “guardian of the state”, that Jakarta sees as ceremonial and GAM leaders see as political, embodying Acehnese self-rule.

Complicating matters is the continued thuggish behaviour of many ex-guerrillas, now grouped in the ostensibly civilian Aceh Transition Committee (Komite Pemulihan Aceh, KPA). The KPA in many areas has become a local mafia, involved in extortion and protection rackets and completely unaccountable.

“Many people in Jakarta and the international donor community have declared Aceh a success and turned to other matters”, says Sidney Jones, Crisis Group Senior Adviser. “But complacency is misguided – the tensions are palpable and need to be addressed”.