Beirut/Brussels, 15 May 2008: The announcement of an Arab League-mediated agreement is welcome, but if Lebanon is to step back from risk of a new civil war, a package deal must be crafted that defines and regulates use of Hizbollah’s weapons without disarming it at this time.

Lebanon: Hizbollah’s Weapons Turn Inward,* the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the dramatic escalation of violence across parts of the country. It calls for renewed efforts to reach a package deal on a president and a national unity government that accepts for now Hizbollah’s armed status while strictly constraining the ways in which its weapons can be used.

Although Hizbollah’s takeover of much of West Beirut began as a strike on 7 May protesting the rising cost of living, the real trigger lay in the government’s earlier decision to reassign the Hizbollah-friendly chief of airport security and to challenge the legality of the Shiite movement’s independent telephone network. In other words, the crisis reverted to its origins: an existential struggle over the future of Hizbollah’s arms.

“The government has wisely withdrawn the controversial decisions that sparked the crisis”, says Patrick Haenni, Crisis Group’s Lebanon Analyst. “Now the onus is on all Lebanese parties to de-escalate the situation and reach a broader political accord”.

No party has emerged a clear victor in what has been a lose-lose confrontation.  Hizbollah and its allies clearly prevailed in the military showdown. But outside its own constituency, Hizbollah is seen more than ever as a Shiite militia brutally defending its parochial interests rather than those of a self-proclaimed national resistance. The March 14 coalition continues to govern, but it has been humiliated and is exposed to the anger of a rank-and-file that felt defenceless. The army emerged with its reputation somewhat weakened and accused by members of the majority and ordinary Sunnis of failing its duty to protect civilians. 

On all sides of the deepening confessional divide, there will be a temptation to radicalise and bolster military capabilities. Sunnis in particular could be drawn to more militant, jihadi groups.

“To stabilise the situation, Lebanon must find a middle ground between irresponsibly allowing Hizbollah unfettered use of its weapons and recklessly seeking its forcible disarmament”, says Robert Malley, Crisis Groups Middle East Program Director. “That may not be enough. But it probably is the best one can achieve until a broader settlement dealing with the Arab-Israeli conflict but also relations between the U.S., Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia is reached”.