JOHANNESBURG, 6 March (IRIN) - A new report by the Brussels-based think-tank, International Crisis group (ICG) has voiced concern that the economic meltdown in Zimbabwe could destabilise the region.

"Due to the gravity of the economic situation ... unplanned violence could erupt at any time, set off perhaps by an event as simple and common as a traffic accident or overzealous police activity," said the ICG report, 'Zimbabwe: An End To The Stalemate?'.

"The military is also a potential source of instability. Despite pay raises in 2006, most salaries are dangerously close to or beneath the poverty line ... and there are credible reports of desertions and mutiny," the report commented.

Factionalism in the ruling ZANU-PF party over President Robert Mugabe's possible successor "is also contaminating the higher echelons of the military. Only favoured units close to Mugabe can be fully trusted."

In what was intended as a confidential memo, Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri acknowledged that current pay disparities in the security services risked propelling officers into "active rebellion against the government," the ICG reported.

Other countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) were moving ahead with economic integration and political cooperation, but "Zimbabwe is the great uncertainty in the middle of southern Africa that could drag the region down with it". The ICG suggested that there could not be a better time than now for an intervention to resolve the crisis, when Mugabe's succession was being debated.

The think-tank urged South Africa, the regional powerhouse in the SADC, the European Union and the United States of America to adopt a joint strategy, with "benchmarks leading to a genuinely democratic process, for which removal of sanctions and resumption of international aid to government institutions could be used at the appropriate time as incentives".

It said consultations were needed now to get the strategy in place by July, when the Zimbabwean parliament is expected to take a crucial decision on Mugabe's 'harmonisation' scheme. The president has indicated that he intends extending his tenure in office by another two years, from 2008 to 2010, to 'harmonise' the presidential and parliamentary elections.

ICG has called for SADC-led negotiations to implement an exit strategy for Mugabe before March 2008, when his term officially comes to end. It has also called for negotiations with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) on a constitutional framework, a power-sharing agreement, and a detailed agenda with benchmarks for a two-year political transition, beginning in March 2008.

According to the ICG, Mugabe is facing resistance to extending his bid until 2010 from his ZANU-PF party, and cited the failure of its annual conference in December 2006 to adopt the resolution for harmonising the presidential and parliamentary elections. "The key obstacle was the threat of some influential members to rebel, as a result of which the security agencies advised Mugabe to abandon the effort at the conference."

More than three million Zimbabweans have sought economic and political refuge in South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Lesotho, Zambia and Malawi; slightly more than a million have departed for the United Kingdom, the United States of America and Canada.

Economic analyst Eric Bloch told IRIN that the meltdown was likely to have four main effects. "The result would be a massive exodus of Zimbabweans into neighboring territories, which would impact on the resources of those countries, including taking employment opportunities from residents of the host countries."

Another sign of the meltdown would be increasing inability by Zimbabwe to fund its own trade due to insolvency, while a third likely outcome was that the whole of southern Africa would cease to be an attractive investment destination, as the region would attract negative publicity, raising fears that what had happened in Zimbabwe would be tolerated if it happened in neighbouring countries.

As a fourth area of concern, Bloch pointed out that international infrastructure in the region, like the road and electricity networks, were interlinked, a situation that required continued stability.

Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of the National Constitutional Assembly, a nongovernmental organisation advocating human rights, said the only way forward was for all sectors of Zimbabwean society to apply sustained pressure on Mugabe to retire at the end of his term in office in early 2008.

"A lot of pressure has to be applied, and if Mugabe responds by banning rallies and demonstrations it will seriously weaken his legitimacy, and the world will get to know about it. Even if the opposition unites today, I don't think they will necessarily agree on the best way forward to bring about democratic change."

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