BANGKOK, 19 November 2009 (IRIN) - Indonesia's West Sumatra province, recently hit by a deadly 7.9 magnitude earthquake [http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=86480] , is likely to experience an even bigger quake, and buildings need to be constructed to withstand this, experts say.   The 30 September earthquake, which struck off West Sumatra's coast, hit the provincial capital of Padang, killing more than 1,100 people and leaving numerous collapsed and damaged buildings.   As a result, 45 engineers from Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, funded by the intergovernmental Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction, undertook a three-week survey of 4,000 buildings in the quake zone.

"Essentially we were looking at factors that have basically either contributed to their failure from the ground shaking, or also the factors that have contributed to … some structures not being impacted," Matthew Hayne from Geoscience Australia and co-leader of the team, told IRIN.   "Some recent studies indicate there is a big [likelihood] of having an 8.5 earthquake in the next decade … Our building codes should consider this potential event," said Wayan Sengara from the Center for Disaster Mitigation at the Institute of Technology Bandung in Indonesia, and co-leader of the survey team.   The survey has identified the need for technical advice and education for home builders, while there are also several engineering recommendations, including the proper use of reinforcement and concrete.   The results, which are being passed to Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency, are intended to help build safer buildings during the reconstruction phase.   "One of the driving factors behind the survey that we're doing here and the recommendations … relate to the fact that there is a high probability that the future event, when it occurs, will be a tsunamigenic event as well as that earthquake," said Hayne.   Preparing for the next disaster   The Indonesian government has put the number of severely and moderately damaged houses at 181,665, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs' (OCHA) latest situation report on 3 November. Ten hospitals, 272 health facilities and 1,078 schools were damaged.   The survey team, assisted by university engineering students, focused on medical facilities and schools.   Sengara said building codes - which needed to be updated; the extent of compliance of building designs to the codes; and, in turn, the compliance of construction to building designs, were all factors that played into the extent of damage.   "Most of the buildings we surveyed [that] experienced some damage were constructed before 2002. So the construction behind the design of the building, and also the construction quality, seems to be one of the contributors to the damage," he said.   He warned of an "accumulated risk" if the survey's recommendations were not followed through, but also flagged difficulties with enforcing compliance with building codes, even if they were updated.

  "This is an issue in many provinces in Indonesia. What happens is that the compliance of the design to the building code is not well enforced by the government," said Sengara.   "Before the building can be constructed, there is supposed to be a building permit and before issuing this building permit, there should be some requirements. The compliance of the design to the building code has to be reviewed. And in the current situation, this process is weak," he said.   Indonesia is part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, which is vulnerable to seismic activity because tectonic plates meet there. West Sumatra's low-lying coastline faces the Indian Ocean and the province has been called a "supermarket" for disasters, earthquakes and tsunamis by local officials.

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