By Simon Cameron-Moore

ISLAMABAD, Feb 8 (Reuters) - For all the doubts about Pakistan's commitment to fighting the Taliban, a recent wave of suicide attacks on its soldiers and cities belies suspicions that they might be in cahoots, analysts and diplomats say.

Hardly a week passes without President Pervez Musharraf having to fend off accusations, mostly from Kabul, that the Pakistani army tolerates Taliban sanctuaries and its spies support the insurgents in Afghanistan.

"I don't see that there would be any sense in supporting the Taliban when it is killing our troops and creating embarrassment with the international community," commented Talat Masood, a retired general-turned-analyst.

Last November, a suicide bomber killed 42 Pakistani army recruits in revenge for an air strike on a militant madrasa in Bajaur tribal agency that killed about 80 men and boys.

Over the past few weeks close to 30 people, many of them police and soldiers, have been killed in similar attacks believed by intelligence officials to have been ordered by a Pakistani Taliban commander, Baitullah Mehsud, after an air strike on one of his bases in South Waziristan on Jan. 16.

Yet, for the past year the Afghan government has fuelled suspicions that Pakistan has not given up its old habit of using militants to further its interests in neighbouring countries.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has good reason to look for a scapegoat given his sagging popularity amid rising violence and his failure to deliver economic improvement despite billions of dollars poured into Afghanistan, analysts and diplomats say.

U.S. President George W. Bush's public support for Musharraf shows he doesn't doubt the Pakistani leader's sincerity, and the White House swiftly opposed moves by the House of Representatives last month to make military aid to Pakistan conditional on results.

On Jan. 10, NATO forces intercepted and killed about 130 insurgents crossing the border, three weeks earlier a top Taliban commander was killed in an air strike. NATO thanks Pakistan for its role in both operations.

Nor has the CIA joined in criticism of its counterpart, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), since Musharraf rang changes at the spy agency, after switching support from the Taliban to the United States, after al Qaeda's Sept. 11 attacks.

"All the arrests and killing, apprehensions, have been through the good services, good performance of ISI, and the CIA knows it," Musharraf told a news conference last week, defending his spies against "preposterous" accusations they helped the Taliban.

Since coming to power in a military coup more than seven years ago, Musharraf has held onto his post as army chief. He has appointed all the top brass, including those at the ISI.

Doubts about their loyalties have largely faded, though there is a risk of rogue or retired agents running their own agenda.

But there are a number of analysts who reckon that Pakistani generals don't think the West's commitment to Afghanistan will last, in which case, they argue, the Taliban represent ready-made leverage against an Afghan government whose friendship with arch rival India is causing unease.

Others don't think Musharraf can take a chance angering the United States.

"After risking all that he has, I don't think President Musharraf would do something like this," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, an expert on tribal affairs in North West Frontier Province.

TEST OF RESOLVE

Even before the latest attacks, Pakistan had lost more than 700 troops fighting al Qaeda and Taliban in border areas, particularly Waziristan, where controversial peace deals with Taliban militants are now hanging by a thread.

Musharraf is hoping the deals will engage moderates and isolate militants in the fiercely independent tribal region, something he says Karzai should be doing in Afghanistan.

But the Jan. 16 air strike seems to have provoked attacks on Islamabad.

The government hasn't said who was behind an attack at the capital's airport on Tuesday, when a gunman carrying grenades was killed and three police wounded, but a suicide bomber who killed himself and a guard at the Marriott hotel on Jan. 26 was believed to have been sent by Mehsud.

The sense of insecurity generated by the bombings will test the government's resolve, analysts say, and any military response has to weigh the probability of more revenge attacks.

"It will make the government think twice. It's a very dangerous situation," Yusufzai said.

Frequently characterised as walking a tightrope, Musharraf has to convince many Pakistanis the Taliban really are enemies, as he doesn't want to be seen fighting Washington's war in a country rife with anti-American sentiment.

While Musharraf rejects U.S. intelligence assessments that command and control of the Taliban insurgency is in Pakistan, he now describes the Taliban and their reactionary culture as the greatest threat to his country.

U.S. concerns about Musharraf's military, Western observers in Islamabad say, are less about its commitment, and more about its capacity to seal a mountainous, 2,500 km (1,500 mile) border tailor-made for guerrillas.

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