FACTBOX-Where will Gaza's shaky ceasefire lead?
Source: Reuters
Dec 4 (Reuters) - Below are answers to some questions about a ceasefire that took effect between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza on Nov. 26. IS THE CEASEFIRE HOLDING? For the moment, although it is under pressure every day. Militants in Gaza have launched some 20 rockets at Israel since the truce began. No Israelis have been wounded and the number is lower than rocket firings before the ceasefire. But a fatal attack could jeopardise the pact. While Israeli troops have stayed out of Gaza, they continue raids against gunmen in the occupied West Bank, where a truce is not in effect. Soldiers have killed five Palestinians, including four civilians, in the West Bank since the Gaza truce. WILL THE TRUCE LAST? Militant groups are agitated over the West Bank raids. The governing Hamas movement has said the raids endangered the ceasefire and that they had suspended participation in talks to broaden the truce to include all kinds of attacks, not just rocket firings. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Israel would not hold back for much longer if militants kept firing rockets from Gaza. However, in a sign Israel wants to ease tensions in the West Bank, Israeli media said the army would not arrest Palestinians there without approval from senior commanders. WHAT COMES NEXT? If the truce holds for a week or two, the next step will be agreeing a swap of Palestinian prisoners jailed in Israel in exchange for an Israeli soldier captured by militants in a cross-border raid from Gaza five months ago. Either before or after an exchange, a long-awaited meeting between Olmert and the moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas could take place. At the same time, Hamas has flexed its muscles by withdrawing from talks on broadening the truce, partly in response to Abbas's announcement that efforts to form a unity government had reached a dead end. WHAT IF THE CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES? Israel's offensive in Gaza would likely resume. Olmert would be under pressure to step up operations, with perhaps the army re-taking parts of Gaza. This could ignite major fighting. Even if the truce holds, Olmert is likely to continuing facing calls from some Israeli military officials who are warning of a surge in arms being smuggled into Gaza from neighbouring Egypt. WHAT ABOUT A PALESTINIAN UNITY GOVERNMENT? This could be the biggest hurdle in moving beyond the truce and a prisoner swap. Abbas has said talks between his Fatah faction and Hamas on forming a unity government were going nowhere. This raises the prospect Abbas might sack the government or call a referendum on fresh elections to lift Western sanctions. Such a move would revive fears of civil war. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, has gone on a Middle East tour for several weeks, ensuring there will be no high-level unity talks for some time. PEACE TALKS? That still seems like a far off prospect. A meeting between Olmert and Abbas will be little more than a handshake until the Israeli soldier in Gaza is freed. Even then, issues of final borders, the status of Jerusalem and whether Palestinian refugees have the "right of return" to homes in what is now Israel are not even on the radar screen.
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