ANALYSIS-Iraq report gives some Lebanese cause to sweat
Source: Reuters
By Tom Perry BEIRUT, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The call by an elite U.S. panel for Washington to talk to Damascus has left Beirut's anti-Syrian leaders wondering if their U.S. ally will permit Syria to reassert itself in Lebanon in exchange for help over Iraq. The Iraq Study Group, led by former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, has proposed that the United States abandon its policy of shunning both Syria and Iran, accused of fomenting Iraq violence, to prevent "a slide towards chaos" there. It is not clear if all the panel's ideas will be adopted by U.S. President George W. Bush, who holds up Lebanon as a model of democracy and denounces Syria as a safe haven for terrorists. Bush on Thursday again gave strong backing to Lebanese prime minister, Fouad Siniora, and said Syria was trying to destabilise the government in Beirut. But the public support might gave way to private concessions to Syria, some Lebanese fear, as Washington casts around for ways to extricate itself from vicious conflict in Iraq Syria would want the U.S. to concede it has a role in Lebanon where IT held greater sway until Western pressure helped force out its troops last year. "The need for Syria to help pacify Iraq will give the Syrians the chance to assert their influence in Lebanon," said Hilal Khashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut. "It wouldn't surprise me if trying to improve the situation in Iraq would imply making certain concessions in Lebanon." Lebanon's fate seems already to have been bargained away, wrote prominent commentator Talal Salman in his As-Safir daily, referring to the Iraq report. "Lebanese leaders must take note that the deal has almost been done above their heads." The anti-Syrian coalition in government, known as the March 14 movement, came to office after the Syrian withdrawal. With the support of Washington and Paris, it has made combating Syrian influence a priority. KILLING The anti-Syrian leaders are trying to push on with plans for an international tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri -- the former premier whose slaying in February 2005 they blame on Damascus. Syria denies involvement. But the March 14 coalition is facing a fierce challenge by the opposition led by Hezbollah, a group backed by both Syria and Iran, which has paralysed the heart of Beirut for the past week to push its demand for a power of veto in government. Hezbollah, anti-Syrian leaders say, aims to restore Syrian control in Lebanon and to derail the international tribunal. Baker said on Wednesday it was "just ridiculous" to suggest giving up on the investigations into the killing of Hariri and other anti-Syrian figures. "There must be 10 or 11 or 12 things we will be asking of Syria," he said. The Iraq Study Group openly endorses the Western-backed Beirut government, linking the Syrian-Lebanese track of a proposed Arab-Israeli peace plan to an end to "Syrian efforts to undermine the democratically elected government". But were Washington to engage Syria despite opposition in some U.S. political circles, it would be seen as a victory for Damascus and symbolise Washington's inability to shape the region as it wants. That in itself would be a blow to Lebanon's anti-Syrian politicians who have staked much on Washington's regional power, commentator Joseph Smaha said. "March 14 must know that in the next one or two years the American wave which might have brought everything they wanted cannot bring much at all. The wave is no longer strong or successful," Smaha said. "They must reduce their aspirations." DEJA VU? A change of U.S. policy could take time, he said. "Let's say Bush decides to adopt a lot of this ... it's going to take many months to start. There will be no immediate political affect." Some observers suggest Lebanon might be about to go through a rerun of its experience in the early 1990s, when the United States acquiesced to Syria establishing control of its neighbour in return for Damascus's help with Iraq. Baker was U.S. secretary of state when Washington last engaged Syria meaningfully and secured its support against Saddam Hussein after his invasion of Kuwait. But suggestions Washington might again be about to give in to Syria go too far, analysts say. Moreover, the anti-Syrian leaders have other allies including France and Saudi Arabia. Syria may gain more influence through its Lebanese allies Hezbollah and Amal, but not the complete control it had in the 1990s. "The opposition would be greatly mistaken if they think that a complete turn in American policy is going to happen after this report," Smaha said. The American University's Khashan said: "The United States will never abandon the Lebanese government, but politics means compromise and making room for the others."
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