ANALYSTS' VIEW-New bin Laden video
Source: Reuters
Sept 8 (Reuters) - Following are some analysts' views on a newly released video of Osama bin Laden marking the sixth anniversary of al Qaeda's Sept. 11 attacks: ROHAN GUNARATNA, AUTHOR "INSIDE AL QAEDA" "Osama's call to the Americans to convert to Islam is indicative of an al Qaeda attack on U.S. targets. Before the Prophet (Mohammad) attacked his enemies he urged his opponents to embrace Islam." "Osama is presenting Koranic injunctions before planning to attack." AMR El-CHOUBAKI, EXPERT ON ISLAMIST MOVEMENTS: There's nothing new there, except for... when he called on the US to convert to Islam. In my opinion that's different from his earlier statements that contained a political dimension, references to oppression, and contained language that was broader than direct religious creedal language. I think it suggests a return to a closed and impossible understanding of religion. I think when there's impossible talk floated it reflects a crisis in discourse... It's clear his influence within the al Qaeda organisation... is now limited, so the impossible discourse comes to the forefront because it costs nothing. No one's going to ask him how he plans to convert the US, and with what means. But when he talks about specific objectives, that he'll attack this area, or that the US will withdraw from Iraq in a month... there people will expect results. So it's clear he's not capable of achieving anything possible, so he's switched to impossible discourse, which no one can call him out on. KHALID AL-DAKHIL, SAUDI POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT KING SAUD UNIVERSITY: There was a U.S. report warning of a possible attack, then came this. The whole message is focused on the United States ... this suggests that there is a threat. The more important thing is the message that leaving Iraq, which appears more likely now, will not solve the problem. ABDEL BARI ATWAN, EDITOR AL-QUDS NEWSPAPER, LONDON: He would like to say that he is not dead, as many people anticipated, and he is still the leader of al Qaeda... It was very significant, the transformation of his image, of his character which he wanted to convey in this videotape. He would like to say: 'I am not the old Osama bin Laden, I am the new, mature Osama bin Laden, I am the spiritual leader of al Qaeda.' Usually his appearance is connected with a coming attack. This could be a warning shot. This is sort of a rallying video. Maybe there is a message to his followers -- go ahead and do what you want to do. There will be a sigh of relief among his supporters that he is still alive. But definitely it is not really the strong speech they expected, it is not newsy. The only new thing is his appearance, his conversion to civilian leader and ideologist of al Qaeda. M.J. GOHEL, ASIA-PACIFIC FOUNDATION, LONDON There is a very theatrical and amateur feel about this particular message, and I suspect that Adam Gadhan, the California-born head of As-Sahab, al-Qa'ida's media arm, has played a major role in scripting and production of this video, and also orchestrating its release. Bin Laden dyeing his hair and beard, whilst hiding out somewhere in Pakistan, is really bizarre because it makes him, a man who claims he wants to be a martyr, look vain and ridiculous as he seems to have the time and priority to do a major makeover before appearing on camera. It does not fit with the image he has so carefully nurtured, the masquerade of his being a holy warrior devoid of normal human traits. He seems to have undergone changes in both his physical appearance and his personality. It is truly odd that bin Laden speaks about "the reeling of many of you under the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgages; global warming and its woes..." because the wording and sentiments are those of a rebellious young western-born individual and not the head of al Qaeda. Because video tapes featuring bin Laden speaking to camera are so rare, the release of this particular tape could herald a major attack, though remarkably this message contains none of his usual open threats against the United States. If it is indeed bin Laden then he is exhibiting a very different personality trait and shift from previous messages. FARES BIN HOUZAM, SAUDI INDEPENDENT RESEARCHER ON AL QAEDA: This is just a message to his followers and foes that he exists and that he is still the leader of al Qaeda. I am 100 percent sure that this man has no power to plan (for al Qaeda). He is just giving signals to his followers around the world. MOHAMED EL-SAYED SAID, DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE AHRAM CENTRE FOR POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES IN CAIRO: The message is much more threatening this time. It's confident, it uses iconic language that suggests, 'I'm commissioned to wage an unending war against you, and the only way to get peace is to convert to Islam.' It's very clear that he took care to give the impression that's he's at ease, that he's on the offensive and he controls the situation, that's he not a fugitive, he's very comfortable ... He's saying 'Now I can show you mercy or not.' He's in a state of battle, a state of constant, unending war until he Islamises the world ... So they're not talking about Iraq, they're talking about the world.
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