By Jack Kimball

ASMARA, Jan 9 (Reuters) - It was the nightmare scenario that many across the Horn of Africa feared.

Ethiopia invades Somalia. Eritrea takes advantage of its arch-foe's distraction to move into the disputed border zone. The region plunges into conflict.

But while Ethiopia did, indeed, send its troops, tanks and jets into Somalia to rout Islamists in two weeks of open war, the Ethiopian-Eritrean border remained quiet.

"The Ethiopian action was a sort of dramatic strike using quite significant forces. There wasn't time (for Eritrea to react)," said Sally Healy, of the British-based think-tank Chatham House.

A Western diplomat in Nairobi said: "It was the dog that didn't bite -- for now. And thank God for that."

Ethiopia's accusation -- hotly denied by Asmara -- that thousands of Eritrean soldiers were fighting alongside the Somali Islamists had fuelled concern the conflict could spark another round of fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Ethiopia also accused Eritrea of moving hundreds of soldiers into the border zone a few weeks before the war.

"But the fact there wasn't any sort of confrontation seems to support Eritrea's case. There might not have been the Eritrean presence (in Somalia) that was alleged," Healy said.

Analysts say a new Ethiopian-Eritrean flare-up may still break out if the Islamists can muster a powerful insurgency in Somalia like that seen in Iraq, and internal dissent inside Ethiopia increases.

One analyst in Asmara who is not authorised to speak to the media said Eritrea's posture was not as aggressive as many believed:

"I don't see the Eritreans making an offensive manoeuvre unless there's opposition-backed disintegration (of Ethiopia). They'd only get involved if they thought it needed a push."

"PROXY CONFLICTS"

Eritrea gained de facto independence from Ethiopia in 1991 after a 30-year struggle. Its animosity towards Ethiopia and its mistrust of the international community are deep-seated.

It remembers how in 1952 the U.N. squashed its claims for independence, making Eritrea an Ethiopian protectorate and fuelling the independence war, known as the "Struggle".

With little outside help, Eritrean rebels battled successive Ethiopian governments that were backed by U.S. then Soviet arms.

At first, the post-independence era seemed to change that.

Close ties with rebel-leader-turned-president Meles Zenawi, whom the Eritreans helped to put in power, seemed to portend good relations with Africa's second most populous country.

But that changed in 1998 when the countries went to war over their shared border. Two years later, tens of thousands lay dead from fighting reminiscent of World War One trench warfare.

The war is over but border tensions remain and the neighbours have floated from crisis to crisis, albeit without open hostilities breaking out again.

"They look at each other's weak points and have developed proxies. The region becomes a patchwork of mutual intervention and proxy wars," Healy said.

Western nations accuse Eritrea of using Somalia as a proxy battleground and funding Ethiopian insurgent groups.

Eritrea denies the claims, but it knows internal instability played a crucial role in Meles' overthrow of dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam in 1991.

"Eritrea has chosen a strategy of containment of Ethiopia outside and destabilising actions inside," said a Western analyst who follows Eritrea closely.

"We will have no stability in the Horn unless the border and unresolved issues between Ethiopia and Eritrea are solved."

For now, Asmara will bide its time, experts say.

"Eritrea will continue to reassert itself all over the region, and they estimate Ethiopia is going to be bogged down in Somalia and what looks like a big success might turn out not to be. Time will show whether they're right," Healy said.

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