By Tom Perry

BEIRUT, April 11 (Reuters) - Lebanon's political crisis shows no sign of ending and the split between the governing coalition and its rivals, including Hezbollah, may result in two governments later this year, increasing the chances of conflict.

A resolution of the five-month standoff hinges on a wider regional power struggle between Iran and the United States, which back the rival factions, analysts say.

Talks last month failed to resolve Lebanon's worst crisis since its 1975-1990 civil war. The opposition, including groups allied to Syria, wants veto power in cabinet. The Western-backed government has refused to yield.

The prospect of another civil war has faded because neither the ruling coalition nor its opponents want a fight, analysts said, and the two sides have turned their focus to trying to gauge the direction of U.S. policy towards Iran, Syria and Iraq.

The rival camps accuse each other of working to foreign agendas to the detriment of Lebanon. Hezbollah describes the cabinet as a U.S. puppet while the governing coalition says the opposition takes orders from Iran and Syria.

"There is a time-buying game until they see how the regional situation will fare," said Oussama Safa of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies. "Everyone is banking on a regional shock."

The opposition wants the Americans to be "brought to their knees in Iraq", Safa said.

Hezbollah says the coalition, also known as the March 14 movement, is reckoning on imminent U.S. strikes on Iran which is at odds with the West over its nuclear programme. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the group's leader, said on Sunday that March 14 would be weakened if the United States was defeated in such a conflict or reached a deal with Iran.

TROUBLE AHEAD?

"The dialogue is deadlocked. What do we do?" Nasrallah said. Stalemate was much better than a civil war, he added.

Ten people have been killed since the crisis began, most in January when Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims loyal to rival leaders clashed. Reports that rival factions are arming have kept Lebanese on edge even as the possibility of civil war has eased.

"It's still there (as a possibility), but everybody inside Lebanon and outside are afraid of this option," columnist Sateh Noureddin said.

The end of the term of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud in November could trigger an end to the months of paralysis and increase the chances of a return to violence.

Lahoud has said he will not hand over his authorities to the current government, a procedural step towards the election of a new head of state.

He might instead appoint a new government, leaving Lebanon with two cabinets. "The creation of a new government by the outgoing president will not mean immediate war but lay the grounds for a military confrontation," said Hilal Khashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut.

The peaceful stalemate could also be strained by any attempt by the U.N. Security Council to set up an international tribunal into the 2005 killing of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.

Hezbollah, while supportive of the tribunal, has expressed concerns the court, with U.S. support, will be used as a political weapon against it.

March 14 leaders say the opposition's main aim is to derail plans for the tribunal to protect Damascus, which they accuse of the killing. Syria denies involvement. Lebanon is supposed to approve plans for the tribunal before it is set up. With no Lebanese agreement on the court, the March 14 coalition wants the Security Council to approve it under Chapter 7 of the organisation's charter.

"If the U.N. does something under Chapter 7, that would spell troubles for Lebanon," said Khashan.

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