By Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent

BEIRUT, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Twin bus bombs in Lebanon on the eve of a planned mass memorial for Rafik al-Hariri have sent further tremors through a country still struggling with the aftershocks of the former prime minister's assassination.

The explosions, which dismembered ordinary people on their way to work, killed at least three commuters and wounded 17 in a Christian mountain area near Beirut on Tuesday.

A string of previous attacks, mostly aimed at anti-Syrian politicians and journalists, had shaken Lebanon since the Feb. 14, 2005 killing of Hariri, a billionaire who had led his country's drive to rebuild after its 1975-90 civil war.

An outcry over Hariri's assassination forced Syria to end its 29-year military grip on its tiny neighbour.

But two years later, Lebanon remains mired in local conflicts inseparable from a wider confrontation between the United States and its regional foes Iran and Syria over Iraq, the Arab-Israeli conflict and Tehran's nuclear programme.

With various Lebanese factions aligned with foreign powers, progress on a political deal remains hostage to their interests.

"A solution has to come from outside," said Habib Malik, a history professor at the Lebanese American University. "Everyone here has links to the outside. That's Lebanon."

Fears for Wednesday's Hariri anniversary had focused on possible friction in downtown Beirut between anti-Syrian government supporters and the Hezbollah-led opposition, which has manned a tent city in the heart of the city since Dec. 1.

With army troops and razor wire keeping Shi'ite Muslim and Christian demonstrators away from his office, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has resisted opposition demands for a national unity government or early parliamentary elections.

MUTUAL MISTRUST

Hezbollah and its Syrian allies accuse Siniora of being a servant of Washington bent on disarming the Shi'ite guerrillas who fought a 34-day war with Israel in July and August.

Pro-government Sunni Muslim, Druze and Christian factions say the opposition is trying, at Syria's behest, to derail a U.N.-backed tribunal to try suspects in Hariri's killing.

Mediation by Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa and others has so far not healed rifts that have paralysed Lebanon's institutions, depressed business and impeded postwar recovery.

Saudi Arabia, with strong links to Hariri's Sunni support base, has discussed a possible Lebanon compromise with Iran, Hezbollah's main ally. But political sources say Syria, whose relations with the Saudis are icy, has so far blocked a deal.

"Saudi Arabia was trying to manage the conflict with Iran, not resolve it," said Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut.

"The Iranians are not much interested in instigating turmoil in Lebanon, but they tolerate a Syrian desire for instability in order to make some kind of a come-back and avoid the tribunal."

Lebanese political sources say Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, has floated a new compromise proposal, but few analysts believe an overall solution is in sight.

"The issues are too big to be resolved locally," said Nadim Shehadi, a Lebanese academic at London's Chatham House think-tank. "If you take Lebanon as the faultline, the whole world is divided over what to do about Syria and Iran."

INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE

Lebanon has been in turmoil since 2004 when a U.N. Security Council resolution backed by Washington and Paris demanded a Syrian withdrawal and the disarming of all Lebanese militias.

After Israel's war with Hezbollah, a much-expanded U.N. peacekeeping force moved into the south alongside newly deployed Lebanese troops, crimping the guerrillas' freedom of action.

Hezbollah and its allies remain determined to foil what they see as an U.S.-Israeli bid for hegemony over Lebanon -- just as Syrian-backed militias forced American Marines to leave Beirut and aborted a peace deal with Israel in 1983.

Last month the feuding camps brought Lebanon to the brink of disaster, when armed clashes killed nine people and wounded hundreds more, sparking fears that seething Sunni-Shi'ite and inter-Christian tensions could reignite civil war.

Since then political and religious leaders have calmed their followers. Hezbollah has again pledged not to turn its weapons on other Lebanese or get sucked into sectarian conflict.

Defusing the crisis is likely to require a package deal to encompass looming presidential elections, the U.N. tribunal and electoral reform, as well as the fate of Siniora's cabinet.

"We will have a bumpy ride. It'll be a rollercoaster, but it won't reach the point of civil strife or civil war," Malik said.

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