Feb 14 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica went on national television on Thursday to brace Serbia for the imminent secession of its historic Kosovo province, which he said Serbs would never accept.

Kosovo is set to declare independence from Serbia on Sunday, almost nine years since NATO went to war to save its Albanian majority from Serb ethnic cleansing and the territory became a ward of the United Nations.

The major Western powers back independence for the province, which has been run by the United Nations since NATO drove out Serb forces in 1999. Serbia and Russia are opposed.

Here are some possible scenarios for what could happen next.

WEST RECOGNISES KOSOVO, EU TAKES OVER

The United States, Britain, Germany, France and Italy recognise Kosovo immediately. Most EU members recognise the new state in a second wave, but six - Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Spain - do not. An EU decision to deploy 2,000 police, judges and civil administrators comes into force at midnight on Saturday (2300 GMT on Friday). The mission will take over from the United Nations over a 4-month transition. Serbia is likely to respond by recalling its ambassadors in countries that recognise Kosovo, but will not break diplomatic relations. Kosovo will adopt a new flag, symbols and national anthem. A formal celebration, attended by heads-of-state and foreign dignataries, is held two weeks later.

SERBIA TELLS KOSOVO SERBS TO REJECT SECESSION

Backed by Belgrade, Kosovo's 120,000 remaining Serbs are likely to reject the secession. Media reports suggest the Serb-dominated north will form its own parliament ahead of the declaration. Serbia will strengthen a network of parallel structures already present in Kosovo providing administrative, schooling and health services for the Serb minority, and cementing a de facto partition. Serbs in the north will reject any cooperation with the new EU mission, but will not ask the NATO peace force to leave. The West does not expect a major exodus of Serbs, but the minority will continue to leave gradually as it has done over the past nine years since the war. It remains to be seen how far Serbia might go in trying to formally prise away the north.

SERBIA ENACTS COUNTER-MEASURES AGAINST NEW STATE

Serbia brings into force an "Action Plan" of measures against the new state. Analysts say these might include border closures, a trade embargo and rejection of Kosovo passports. Serbia could also disrupt electricity and water supplies, as well as telephone and internet services, which are all still closely linked between Serbia and its breakaway province. It has ruled out a military response.

SERBIA FACES POLITICAL CRISIS

Already an uneasy alliance, Serbia's governing coalition collapses over the direction the country should take in the wake of the loss of Kosovo. Nationalist Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica calls for the rejection of any EU integration, a move President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party refuses to follow. Elections are called for May, providing yet another referendum on the country's path West to the EU or East towards Russia. The ultranationalist Radical Party is likely to further consolidate its position as the country's biggest political party.

PROSPECTS OF VIOLENCE

The restive Albanian minorities in neighbouring Macedonia and in Serbia's southern Presevo Valley are looking closely at Kosovo, with some hardline local leaders already speaking of land swaps if Kosovo is partitioned. Although many guerrillas from the Kosovo Liberation Army gave up their weapons after the end of the 1998-99 war, there are around 400,000 illegal weapons in Kosovo, many in the hands of criminal gangs. Small nationalist groups -- both Serb and Albanian -- have pledged to take up arms to defend their respective causes, but the 16,000 NATO peacekeepers in Kosovo act as guarantee against major violence.

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