By Nelson Banya

HARARE, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's central bank will likely devalue the local dollar this week to boost exports, risking higher inflation in the short term as it fights to pull the country back from the brink of economic collapse, analysts said.

But economists said the widely expected move, the latest in a series of desperate measures to right Zimbabwe's economic woes, would almost certainly fail without political reforms that the government is resisting.

Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono will this week present a much awaited monetary policy statement as inflation -- the highest in the world at over 1,200 percent -- is surging and foreign currency shortages bite, boosting black market trade.

The southern African country is in the throes of its worst economic crisis since independence in 1980, largely blamed on President Robert Mugabe's politically driven economic policies such as the seizure of white-owned commercial farms for blacks.

Economic analysts said Gono's speech, which has not been officially scheduled but is expected by the end of the month, would devalue the Zimbabwe dollar but not go far enough to satisfy industry, which blames falling exports on unrealistic exchange rates.

Gono last devalued the local currency by an effective 60 percent in August, when he also lopped three zeros off the Zimbabwe dollar and launched new bank notes in a move he said was aimed at curbing hyperinflation.

The analysts said he was likely to introduce a new Zimbabwe dollar currency, which he has previously promised, as part of a fight against inflation.

"There's strong speculation about an impending devaluation... no one can quite tell how far the governor will go, but history shows he has never gone anywhere near market expectations," said Mandla Nyathi, a senior analyst at NMB Bank.

Gono says while he favours a gradual unified exchange rate, he has to balance industry demands and national requirements like paying the government's foreign debt and critical imports such as medicines, food and fuel.

The Zimbabwe dollar is officially pegged at 250 to the U.S. dollar but trades at around 5,000 on the black market.

Analysts said the government feared a big devaluation would see prices soar, fuelling inflation and further hurting the majority grappling with shortages of electricity, water and deteriorating services.

"We know that his (Gono's) hands are tied because government will not look favourably at a sharp devaluation and other desirable policy steps that might not necessarily be politically expedient," said Marah Hativagone, the president of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce.

Zimbabwe's economic crisis has stoked political tensions and has seen doctors and some nurses at state hospitals embark on job boycotts that have paralysed national health centres to demand higher wages.

Many fear the wildcat strikes could escalate into wider work boycotts and spontaneous street protests, heightening tensions as frustration over the deteriorating economy grows.

Political analysts said reforms such as a new constitution, free and fair elections, restoring property rights and improving relations with former Western donors who have halted lending to Zimbabwe, would boost the economy.

"The economic crisis in most of its aspects is as much a political crisis than it is an economic one," said Eldred Masunungure, a leading political analyst.

"Gono might have ideas that will work in the short term but until such a time that we shed our pariah status and address our political problems, Gono will continue to tinker with the symptoms of the real problem," Masunungure said. Critics say the lack of foreign donor aid has accelerated the economic crisis while Mugabe accuses the West of imposing sanctions on Harare as punishment for the land seizure drive.

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