FACTBOX-Global warming: impacts of temperature increases
Source: Reuters
Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will publish a report, the most complete overview of climate change science, in Paris on Feb. 2. It will guide policy makers combating global warming. A draft of the report projects temperatures rising by 2 to 4.5 Celsius (3.6 to 8.1 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100, with a "best estimate" of a 3C (5.4 F) rise. Below are some estimates of the global implications of different temperature rises relative to pre-industrial levels, as detailed in a report on climate change by Nicholas Stern, chief British government economist, published in October. Temp. rise/ Impacts 1 DEGREE * Shrinking glaciers threaten water for 50 million people * Modest increases in cereal yields in temperate regions * At least 300,000 people each year die from malaria, malnutrition and other climate-related diseases * Reduction in winter mortality in higher latitudes * 80 percent bleaching of coral reefs, e.g. Great Barrier Reef 2 DEGREES * 5 - 10 percent decline in crop yield in tropical Africa * 40 - 60 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa * Up to 10 million more people affected by coastal flooding * 15 - 40 percent of species face extinction (one estimate) * High risk of extinction of Arctic species, e.g. polar bear * Potential for Greenland ice sheet to start to melt irreversibly, committing world to 7 metre sea level rise 3 DEGREES * In Southern Europe, serious droughts once every 10 years * 1 - 4 billion more people suffer water shortages * Some 150 - 550 additional millions at risk of hunger * 1 - 3 million more people die from malnutrition * Onset of Amazon forest collapse (some models only) * Rising risk of collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet * Rising risk of collapse of Atlantic Conveyor of warm water * Rising risk of abrupt changes to the monsoon 4 DEGREES * Agricultural yields decline by 15 - 35 percent in Africa * Up to 80 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa * Loss of around half Arctic tundra 5 DEGREES * Possible disappearance of large glaciers in Himalayas, affecting one-quarter of China's population, many in India * Continued increase in ocean acidity seriously disrupting marine ecosystems and possibly fish stocks * Sea level rise threatens small islands, coastal areas such as Florida and major cities such as New York, London, and Tokyo
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