By Gareth Jones

ANKARA, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Turkey is facing the biggest threat to its unity and security since the modern republic was founded in 1923, according to the head of its armed forces.

Enjoying a period of unprecedented economic growth and political stability, Turks could be forgiven for thinking they had misheard the comments of General Yasar Buyukanit, head of the General Staff, made during a recent trip to Washington.

But the general's remarks raised few eyebrows in Turkey, a European Union candidate nation, where they were seen as part of an ongoing campaign by the army and other secularists to shape the outcome of May's presidential election.

His words were also a timely reminder of the army's enduring political influence as Turkey marks the 10th anniversary this week of its "post-modern" coup, when the generals last drove from power an elected government they considered too Islamist.

"The main target of Buyukanit's words was Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan," said Lale Sariibrahimoglu, Turkey correspondent of the respected Jane's Defence Weekly.

"We all know the military does not want Erdogan or indeed anybody whose wife wears the (Islamic) headscarf to run for the presidency ... But the military is frustrated, it knows it cannot act as it did 10 years ago because of constraints like the EU."

On February 28, 1997, the army-dominated National Security Council (MGK) issued a stern warning to then-premier Necmettin Erbakan, who had infuriated secularists by inviting religious sheikhs to his residence and by cosying up to Libya and Iran.

A few months later, without tanks or guns and with broad public support, the army had forced Erbakan from power.

TRANSFORMATION

Turkey today is a different country, transformed by years of economic growth averaging eight percent, by stable government and by EU-linked reforms that have trimmed the army's power. The MGK now has a civilian secretary.

Despite the military's distaste for Erdogan and his ruling AK Party, a successor to Erbakan's Welfare Party, and its fears over the presidential contest, nobody expects a replay of 1997.

"Public statements are the only way the military now has of galvanising public opinion," said Gareth Jenkins, a veteran Istanbul-based writer on Turkey's military.

"The presidential election is Buyukanit's first big challenge as chief of the General Staff and he needs to show his supporters he ... will not be passive," he said.

Secularists worry that, as president, Erdogan or another top AK Party figure would try to undermine Turkey's separation of state and religion. Religious symbols like Erdogan's wife's headscarf are especially upsetting for the generals.

Parliament, where the AK Party has a big majority, is due to pick a successor to the staunchly secularist incumbent, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, when his seven-year term expires in May.

"If they lose the presidency, the army loses a key ally in checking the government," said Dogu Ergil of Ankara University.

Though less powerful in Turkey than the prime minister, the president can veto laws and appoints key officials. Sezer has vetoed hundreds of AK Party nominees he saw as too Islamist.

Analysts noted Suleyman Demirel played a key role as president in 1997, acting in step with the military. With an AK Party president likely from May, the army will be more isolated.

This could increase the danger of institutional conflict, and the stakes for Turkey, which now has billions of dollars in foreign investment and EU candidacy, are higher than in 1997.

In the interests of stability, some say, Erdogan should heed the generals and opt for a compromise presidential candidate.

"AK Party governance of Turkey has the potential to land the country in an atmosphere far worse than that of Feb. 28 1997 ... This is a period when we need ... reconciliation and understanding more than ever," wrote Yusuf Kanli this week in the Turkish Daily News paper.

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