ANALYSIS-Bombings push Iraq closer to abyss
Source: Reuters
(repeats, adding Maliki's full name and title in paragraph 11) By Ross Colvin BAGHDAD, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The bloodiest bombings in Baghdad since the U.S. invasion in 2003, and the reprisals that swiftly followed, show that Iraq's sectarian conflict may be too far gone for leaders to stop, even if they want to. The killings of some 250 people last week marked a "high- water mark", analysts said. It demonstrated with savage clarity how little control Iraq's government exercises, with a security force accused of sectarian bias and a series of peace plans doing little to slow the pace of killing. "This violence shows that sectarian bitterness between Sunnis and Shi'ites has gone deep down into ordinary people. They are totally polarised," said Mohamed el-Sayed Said of al- Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. Despite a three-day-old curfew and appeals for calm from Iraqi leaders across the sectarian divide, mortars crashed down on different Baghdad neighbourhoods amid reports of gunmen clashing. Fears ran high that Iraq was nearing boiling point. "Iraq is moving very fast towards the point of no return," former prime minister Iyad Allawi warned. "The shadow of death and destruction is everywhere. We are all responsible, including me, for this situation." While much of the violence has been blamed on militias tied to political parties in the government and Sunni insurgents, there are signs that rogue gunmen are operating outside any political control and pursuing their own agendas. Ordinary Iraqis are retreating into religiously segregated neighbourhoods and increasingly turning to militias for protection, placing little faith in the ability of Iraq's U.S.- trained security forces -- ill-equipped and accused of colluding with sectarian death squads -- to keep them safe. "Sinking into bloody violence is an expected consequence when you have people seeking the protection of militias rather than government forces," Baghdad lawyer Ali Nasir said. Tit-for-tat killings between majority Shi'ites, who were oppressed under Saddam Hussein, and the former Iraqi leader's fellow Sunnis have surged since the bombing of a Shi'ite shrine at Samarra in February, blamed on Sunni Islamist al Qaeda. U.N. special envoy Ashraf Qazi spoke of an "increasingly vicious cycle of sectarian violence" and called on Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish leaders to launch a genuine dialogue to avert what he called an unprecedented human rights catastrophe. PARALYSIS But Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Shi'ite-dominated national unity government is paralysed by infighting. It has promised much but delivered little since coming to power six months ago, disappointing Iraqis and its backers in Washington. U.S. President George W. Bush may tell Maliki just that when the two meet in Jordan on Wednesday. Security has worsened. The United Nations estimates 120 die a day, while some 100,000 flee the country every month. Some analysts say the mutual mistrust now runs too deep among Iraqis and that their leaders are unwilling or unable to compromise unless international powers force them to negotiate. "They are incapable of doing it on their own. They must be brought together through a package of inducements and punishments," Joost Hiltermann, Middle East director of the International Crisis Group think-tank, told Reuters from Amman. "The state has collapsed. Maliki is a prime minister without a viable army and government institutions have become fiefdoms of various parties," he said, adding the group would publish a report soon calling for an international summit on Iraq. Sectarian tensions within the government have been on the rise after abductions and killings affecting the leadership. "I don't think Iraq can salvage itself from the inside," said Cairo-based analyst Said, who called for Sunni Muslim Arab states Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan to be come involved. In a strongly worded statement, U.N. envoy Qazi said helping Maliki's government save Iraq "must be a major international priority" and that it must include Iraq's neighbours. The Arab League on Sunday called a foreign ministers' meeting for Dec. 5. As the Bush administration hunts for a new strategy to get its troops out of Iraq, it is coming under mounting pressure to talk to Syria and Iran, which it says are fuelling the violence. Iraq's president is due to fly to Tehran on Monday for talks. While academics and analysts debate whether Iraq is already in a civil war and the Bush administration grapples with the question of engaging with its foes, Ahmed Rifaat, 38, a paediatrician in Baghdad, said he had little hope left: "All I can see looming ahead is a country broken in pieces." (Additional reporting by Ahmed Rasheed)
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