By Richard Lough

ANTANANARIVO, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Madagascar's Andry Rajoelina has ordered his prime minister to form a unity government, a move his rivals say breaks a power-sharing deal signed last month in Mozambique. [ID:nL5403134]

Here are possible scenarios:

GOING SOLO?

* Andry Rajoelina, who removed ex-leader Marc Ravalomanana from power in a March coup, has instructed his prime minister, Monja Roindefo, to form a unity government within 72 hours. Rajoelina is adamant he will retain the offices of both the presidency and prime minister in any power-sharing deal.

* A deal struck in Maputo calls for Madagascar's four main protagonists -- Rajoelina, Ravalomanana and former presidents Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy -- to agree consensually on the make-up of a transitional government.

* Rajoelina's rivals have already refused to be a part of this government and are considering their options. Roindefo could appoint ministers from civil society in an effort to give an air of inclusiveness.

* Foreign donors have said they will not recognise any interim government established unilaterally. Aid worth hundreds of millions of dollars that has already been suspended could be withdrawn permanently and regional blocs could impose sanctions.

* Madagascar would be suspended from America's Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, a trade deal which has conditions on good governance. The deal is the mainstay of Madagascar's $600 million-a-year textiles sector.[ID:nLH725702]

PROTRACTED DEADLOCK?

* The African Union (AU), Southern African Development Community (SADC) and United Nations are likely press Rajoelina not to act on his own. Analysts have questioned how much leverage the regional blocs can exert on Madagascar.

* A member of Zafy's delegation said the Maputo deal was not yet dead in the water if Rajoelina was willing to negotiate. Zafy and Ratsiraka have both said they will support Rajoelina's nomination for president if he concedes the premier's office and returns to the negotiating table.

* Ravalomanana's official stance remains that he will not endorse Rajoelina's nomination as president [ID: nLV73243]. If both Rajoelina and Ravalomanana stick to their guns, it is hard to see a way out of the crisis.

* Continuing political uncertainty will do little to reassure major foreign companies investing in Madagascar's growing oil and mineral sectors. Lower commodity prices have already forced some to review investment plans.

KISS, MAKE UP AND SHARE?

* The optimism that filled newspaper columns and cafe chatter after an initial deal signed on Aug 9. in Maputo -- dubbed Maputo I -- is fast ebbing away.

* Analysts warned that the agreement, which paved the way for Madagascar's power brokers to share out the key posts of a transitional government, was the easy part. Dividing up the key offices would be tougher, while working together over a period of 15 months ahead of fresh elections was going to require a serious injection of goodwill.

* However, mediators say they believe that if Rajoelina can be persuaded to let go of the prime minister's post for his camp then the rest will fall into place. The main incentive: donors would have a legitimate reason to re-open aid taps.

* Observers fear that even if the leaders do agree on how to share power, politics in Madagascar will become paralysed as each movement blocks the other while they jockey for position ahead of elections slated for late 2010.

MILITARY INTERVENTION?

* Ever since dissident soldiers helped Rajoelina topple Ravalomanana the military has been seen as pivotal to the outcome of this crisis. However, the armed forces rejected an opposition call to occupy the top posts of government.

* In a determined display of unity, the head of the military police and an army general both dismissed suggestions their troops are divided in their loyalties. Both stress that the military has no role to play in politics.

* However, should violence return to the streets of Antananarivo then the security forces would be forced to intervene. The civil unrest has already killed more than 140 people since the beginning of the year.

* The scenes of pitched battles between protesters and security forces hurt Madagascar's reputation, scaring off tourists and alarming foreign investors. Further violence would devastate an economy the IMF already expects to see grow by less than the forecast 5-7 percent for 2009 [ID:nL81005787]. (Editing by Dominic Evans)

AlertNet news is provided by