By Jack Kimball

KAMPALA, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has called on fugitive rebel leader Joseph Kony to sign a final peace deal aimed at ending the two-decade insurgency in the east African nation.

The call came days after Kony, head of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), snubbed mediators again by failing to show up and sign the agreement, hashed out in two years of negotiations in neighbouring south Sudan.

Here are some scenarios of what could happen next:

USE OF MILITARY FORCE

Following Kony's latest no-show, countries in the region may opt to attack the rebels, currently holed up in eastern Congo.

In June, Uganda, Sudan and Congo agreed in principle to joint operations against the LRA, which some analysts say could put enough pressure on Kony to force him to sign.

But a swift victory would be unlikely against the guerrillas who have been in the area for some time and are used to launching hit-and-run attacks against much larger, better-equipped forces.

Congo's army lacks the capacity to fight the LRA and is already under strain after being routed by its own insurgents in eastern regions.

A U.N. peacekeeping force in eastern Congo is overstretched and still haunted by a botched attack in 2006 when eight Guatemalan special forces were killed by battle-hardened LRA rebels.

It is unlikely Congo would allow Ugandan forces onto its territory to chase rebels given Kampala's past interventions in eastern Congo.

In Sudan, the semi-autonomous southern government is preoccupied by problems with a 2005 peace deal with the northern Khartoum government.

KONY SIGNS

Kony demands guarantees that he will not be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), which wants him for war crimes, but the court has made clear it has no intention of dropping the case.

The LRA chief has snubbed mediators for months since failing to turn up in April to sign a final peace deal.

He met Ugandan elders at the end of November after mediators gave the guerrilla chief until the end of the month to sign, but again refused to sign when the moment came.

Uganda says it will ask the ICC to defer the arrest warrants once Kony signs, but the rebel leader is wary. Even if he does sign, Kony will mostly likely stay in the bush and not disarm until the ICC warrants are scrapped.

RETURN TO WAR IN UGANDA

Since a ceasefire between rebels and the government more than two years ago, northern Uganda has enjoyed unprecedented stability and renewed economic activity.

Uganda's army has fortified its positions in the north to prevent future LRA incursions.

But the rebels usually operate in small groups, which might infiltrate across the border and then dig up weapons' caches hidden in some northern areas, according to analysts.

It would only take one or two well-publicised attacks by the rebels to undo some of the gains in the north.

The rebels are more of a menace outside Uganda's borders in the unstable region taking in parts of south Sudan, Congo and the Central African Republic.

REGIONAL DESTABILISATION

There is a possibility that the LRA rebels could be used as a proxy force against south Sudan's semi-autonomous government if Sudan's 2005 peace deal falls apart ahead of national elections in 2009 and a secession referendum in 2011.

The LRA rebels were long-supported by Sudan's ruling National Congress Party (NCP).

Khartoum wants to protect its oil interests in the areas bordering northern and southern Sudan, which could be lost if the south secedes.

STATUS QUO

Kony's rebels have camped out in the remote regions bordering Sudan, Congo and Central African Republic since the peace process started in 2006.

Human rights groups say Kony has abducted hundreds of children during that time. The small-scale assaults on remote border villages could continue while world attention is focused on other conflicts in central Africa, leaving Kony to re-arm and recruit.

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