Q+A-Is Ivory Coast finally inching towards elections?
Source: Reuters
DAKAR, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Ivory Coast's long-delayed presidential election edged one step closer to reality as the provisional voter lists handed over the country's election commission in electronic form on Thursday, officials said. Originally due to take place in 2005, the poll now scheduled for Nov. 29 is meant to end years of crisis after the 2002-2003 civil war and pave the way for long-overdue reform of the cocoa sector in the world's top grower. However, numerous hurdles remain. Here are some questions and answers about the process. CAN A POLL STILL TAKE PLACE ON NOV. 29? The head of the country's election commission says it can -- but he appears to be alone in that view. Most political parties, analysts and even the independent mediator, are now calling for the process to be completed thoroughly, rather than rushed for the sake of meeting a date. However the U.N. Security Council this week expressed concern about another delay. After Thursday's handover, diplomats say it will take about two more weeks before lists are actually delivered to the 11,000 polling centres around the nation so voters can check for their names and raise any complaints. This stage of the process could throw up yet more delays as questions of identity and who is eligible to vote were central to the arguments that northern rebels used to justify their 2002 uprising, which has left the nation divided since then. Consequently, short of compressing this and other tasks -- which could risk lending weight to the almost inevitable challenges to the vote result -- analysts say a Nov. 29 poll is now all but impossible. WHEN IS A POLL MORE LIKELY? Timetables for how long each of the remaining steps will take are constantly changing but, once agreed upon, the final voter lists will be drawn up for election cards to be printed and handed out to an estimated 6 million voters. The United Nations peacekeeping mission will put on airplanes and helicopters to help with transport to regional centres. But the Ivorian authorities will ultimately have to deliver kit to remote areas by poor roads on a tight budget. These variables, and a history of delays, make predictions difficult but the head of the local U.N. mission has already mooted a delay of weeks or even months. Some analysts suggest March 2010 is a feasible timeframe. Prime Minister Guillaume Soro is set to review the process on Oct. 15 ahead of a key meeting of the consultation committee (CPC), which includes all sides to the conflict and is chaired by the mediator, Burkino Fase President Blaise Campaore. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR COCOA? Ivory Coast has officially launched its 2009/10 cocoa season, setting new farmgate prices and export taxes levels. However, the outlook for the year is pessimistic, with a Reuters poll this week predicting a crop between 1 million and 1.15 million tonnes, down from around 1.19 million this year. The head of the country's cocoa management committee blamed the political crisis on the state of cocoa, which risks falling into a steep decline unless reforms are instigated. Further delays to polls will put reforms on hold. But one U.S.-based cocoa analyst said a troubled election in November, a key period in the season, could also be a disaster for the crop. WHAT IS THE SECURITY SITUATION? Although weary of the process and increasingly cynical of all sides in the crisis, Ivorians are unlikely to spontaneously take to the streets over another delay. More important, say analysts, will be how the various political parties react. Alassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bedie, the main opposition candidates, have both rejected any poll delay but are likely to soften their position if shown concrete progress towards a poll. Incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo's party appears to be stepping back from demands that New Forces (FN) rebels, still controlling the north of the country despite agreements to hand over power, disarm at least two months ahead of an election. Just 600 of a planned 8,000 men have joined integrated units (CCI) meant to oversee security during the election. U.N. peacekeepers are now looking at an alternative arrangement that would leave the various factions to police the elections and mean the government is bereft of a security presence in the north. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE VOTE? As polls inch closer, post-election concerns are emerging. A second round, probably between Gbagbo and Outtara, is seen as the most likely, and least volatile, outcome, analysts say. However, all sides are already starting to look seriously at post-election deal-making so the prospects of a broad-based coalition emerging from the poll cannot be ruled out. The FN rebels remain an unknown quantity, with divisions rife and various commanders are seeking different outcomes, ranging from cash pay-offs to legal immunity, from the process. The rebels themselves have been left in charge of their own disarmament while factions are reportedly rearming, leaving the U.N. and French forces little hold over the military situation. (Writing by David Lewis)
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