By Alastair Macdonald

BAGHDAD, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Digesting an electoral defeat that had its seed in Iraq, U.S. President George W. Bush said on Thursday he was "open to any idea" for a new approach and has publicly reaffirmed a belief that "victory" is possible here.

Privately, however, senior officials in the U.S.-led coalition in Baghdad appear increasingly doubtful that the goal of a united, democratic Iraq, friendly to the United States, can be achieved before American voters' patience is exhausted by the daily U.S. casualties in a nation slipping toward civil war.

A diplomat working closely with Iraqi officials confessed to pessimism last week, saying many powerful figures, frustrated by attempts at consensus politics, were ready to press competing claims with armed force once U.S. and British troops pull out.

"The people at the top still seem committed. But below them, it's very sectarian," the diplomat said. "It's pretty bleak."

Few Iraqi leaders disagree that civil war may be at hand if they cannot break the cycle of fear and anger that is fuelling sectarian violence. And one U.S. general confessed lately to "losing sleep at night" over whether Iraq's new, U.S.-trained forces might simply "fragment" in the face of such divisions.

Some U.S. commanders say adding troops, American or Iraqi, may make little difference and stress the need for political reconciliation -- for which there is so far little evidence.

With Bush's Republicans eager not to lose the White House as they did Congress this week, the 2008 presidential election may set a timeframe for a shift in policy along the lines given rare public voice last month by Britain's General Richard Dannatt, who said it was time to "get ourselves out sometime soon".

"The original intention was that we put in place a liberal democracy," he said. "I don't think we are going to do that."

Bush admitted on Wednesday that things were not "working well enough, quickly enough" in Iraq but insisted there would be no hasty withdrawal and that he was "committed to victory".

Yet he also said last month that American patience was not unlimited and vowed not to leave troops in the "crossfire" of an Iraqi civil war. U.S. officials then bent over backwards to say they have no set deadlines for the Iraqi government.

But new "timelines" agreed last month for Iraq to hit "benchmarks" such as curbing sectarian death squads are meant to push changes before U.S. public support evaporates, senior U.S. officials say -- while insisting that Washington has set no clear condition on what it would do if the targets are not met.

With the elections out of the way, a review of policy options overseen by former secretary of state James Baker is expected to be unveiled that might clarify those options.

RACE AGAINST TIME

As Iraqis die by the hundreds every week, diplomats portray an uphill struggle to press Sunni and Shi'ite leaders to change an entire "mindset" rooted in centuries of sectarian mistrust.

One senior official characterised it as a race against time: "The challenge is, the patience of the American people comes into the picture: how long will it take for the Iraqi mindset to change?" he said. "What we're trying to do is very difficult."

Another senior coalition official in Baghdad said recently: "It's not a blank cheque. There comes a point where, if we're not doing any good, there's no point in staying."

Though many Iraqis point to centuries of harmony and are angered by suggestions they are irreconcilable bigots, their political leaders admit to sharp divisions.

Leaders of the Sunni minority dominant under Saddam Hussein said this week they may quit the unity coalition led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, whose Shi'ite allies accuse Washington of cosying up to rebellious Sunnis out of fear of Shi'ite Iran.

U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, whose own future is the subject of post-election speculation, said last week: "There are some in Iraq, on all sides, that do not believe in reconciliation."

But he insisted: "Success in Iraq is possible."

Maliki and other Iraqi leaders say they want U.S. forces to stay, perhaps for a year or two, to help bring peace. The U.S. commander, General George Casey, has said Iraqi forces may be ready to assume full control in a year to 18 months.

Iraqis, too, are keen to see an end to occupation. But some, notably Sunnis like Abu Abdullah in the northern city of Mosul, say they fear that may leave the way clear for Shi'ite militias: "We Sunnis are very weak," he told Reuters on Thursday. "If they withdraw, then the militias will become bolder."

Some Shi'ites, long oppressed but now in the ascendant, feel the opposite: "If the Americans are holding us back from fighting terrorists then we don't need them," said Mohammed Khalil in Baghdad. "I see them as a hurdle to our ambitions."

For one Western diplomat in Baghdad, from a country not part of the coalition, there is little hope for a happy ending:

"Things have gone too far. I don't see how we can avoid a bloodbath," he said. "For the Americans, now, it's all about how to get out, and without losing too much face -- and getting a Republican back into the White House in two years' time."

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