ANALYSIS-Philippine military has Abu Sayyaf on the run
Source: Reuters
By Carmel Crimmins MANILA, Jan 21 (Reuters) - The death of Abu Sayyaf chief Khaddafy Janjalani will not destroy the Philippines' fiercest Muslim rebel group, but a sustained ground offensive, backed up with economic development, could eventually wipe them out. Confirmation that Janjalani, the Philippines' most wanted man, had been mortally wounded in a gun battle in September, was a major victory for the country's military and its U.S. advisers and crowned a run of success against the Abu Sayyaf Group. The army last week shot to death another senior Abu Sayyaf figure, Abu Sulaiman. About 70 rebels, out of an estimated core of 250 or so, have been killed since a renewed government push in August. The armed forces have been hunting the group's leaders and a handful of Indonesian allies suspected of plotting deadly bombings on Bali since Aug. 1, in what analysts describe as the most successful ground offensive ever against Abu Sayyaf. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has vowed to finish off the rebels "with a hand of steel". But even if the military keeps up its momentum and flushs Abu Sayyaf out of the southern island of Jolo, Manila will need to use softer tactics to fully root out the causes of Muslim militancy in the south. "Abu Sayyaf grows and regroups through hardship, grievances and abuses by government officials," said Scott Harrison, managing director of Manila-based risk consultancy Pacific Strategies & Assessments. "If they (the Philippine government) can keep up the community action they can possibly turn the corner on this. If they turn their backs on this and move on to other things then the Abu Sayyaf will just regroup." SOFT POWER The Philippines is a largely Catholic country, but the southern region of Mindanao has a sizeable Muslim minority who endure high unemployment and grinding poverty -- a fact that has fomented and aggravated violence on islands such as Jolo. Washington, which has been helping its former colony battle Muslim militants since 2002, has been careful to use "soft power" tactics such as building hospitals, schools and wells to win over locals and dissuade young men from joining the rebels. The U.S. is trying to repeat on Jolo the success it had on the neighbouring island of Basilan, a former stronghold of the Abu Sayyaf, which is blamed for the Philippines' worst terror attack, a ferry bombing that killed more than 100 in 2004. Experts say the latest success is due to a renewed commitment by Philippine military chiefs to eliminate Abu Sayyaf, and crucially, to U.S. training, tactics and hardware such as spy drones, night-vision goggles and ammunition. Over the longer term, however, the Philippine military will have to maintain its commitment to preventing Jolo and nearby islands re-emerging as bases for Southeast Asian militants -- a tough task for one of the most ill-equipped armies in the region. Political distraction is another risk with military chiefs frequently called upon either to lead or crush coup plots in Manila. The armed forces chief, General Hermogenes Esperon, said that with Janjalani dead, the military had "neutralised the centre of gravity of terrorism in the Philippines". CLAN TIES But Abu Sayyaf is just one of four Muslim groups active in the Philippines and if Manila succeeds in wiping it out, there may well be other disgruntled militants to pick up the fight. "It's all about kinship and clan ties. Organisation does not matter, it's blood," said Zachary Abuza, an associate Professor at Simmons College in Boston. The government's failure to successfully implement a 10-year old peace deal with the Philippines' oldest Muslim rebel group, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), and stalled peace talks with its largest, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), have caused resentment. Rogue members of both groups have subsequently aided Abu Sayyaf. Some renegade MNLF commanders, for example, offer Abu Sayyaf and its Indonesian allies sanctuary in their camps on Jolo that government troops, for the sake of the shakey peace, cannot enter, analysts say. In addition to the family ties that criss-cross rival groups, Jolo also has a deep-rooted warrior culture that makes it difficult to tame. For now at least, the troops' pursuit of Abu Sayyaf and their Indonesian allies has kept them on the move, preventing any new large-scale attacks and hampering recruitment of new members. "I really think they are being run ragged on Jolo," said Harrison. The military campaign is really quite impressive."
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