Thu, 23:03 23 Oct 2008 GMT17

 

US forecaster sees 3 Atlantic cyclones in October
01 Oct 2008 15:14:35 GMT
Source: Reuters
(Recasts, adds details)

By Jim Loney

MIAMI, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Warm sea water and low surface pressures will help spawn three new Atlantic-Caribbean tropical storms in October and two will become hurricanes, the Colorado State University hurricane research team predicted on Wednesday.

The noted CSU team, founded by pioneer forecaster Bill Gray, did not issue a new full-season forecast. In early August, the forecaster had expected a total of 17 tropical storms during the six-month season, nine of which would become hurricanes.

The forecaster predicted that one of the two hurricanes in October would be a "major" storm of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, with sustained winds above 110 mph (177 kph).

The 2008 Atlantic season has already been an above-average one, producing 12 tropical storms, of which six became hurricanes. Three of those grew into major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season -- which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 -- has about 10 tropical storms, of which six become hurricanes.

"We think we are now entering a new period of heightened activity that is likely to go for another two to three weeks," Gray said in a statement.

El Nino, the eastern Pacific warm-water phenomenon that can curtail hurricanes in the Atlantic, remains in a neutral state, the CSU forecast team said, but other factors are favorable for storm formation.

"We continue to observe low sea level pressures and warm sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic," forecaster Phil Klotzbach said in the statement.

There was little storm activity on the horizon. The last one, Tropical Storm Laura, faded away in the north Atlantic on Wednesday east of Newfoundland and the U.S. National Hurricane Center said it did not expect another cyclone to form in the next two days.

The seasonal record was set three years ago, when 28 tropical storms and hurricanes formed, including Katrina, the costliest in U.S. history with about $80 billion in damage.

A month ago, the Colorado State team predicted September would produce five tropical storms, four of which would grow into hurricanes. It said two of the hurricanes would be Category 3 or higher.

September produced four storms. Two became hurricanes and only Hurricane Ike became a major storm. The Miami-based hurricane center said that matched the long-term average for cyclone production in September.

At its peak strength, Ike had sustained winds of 145 mph (233 kph). It inundated Haiti and raged over the length of Cuba before slamming into the U.S. oil and natural gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Texas, where its powerful tidal surge swamped Galveston and surrounding coastal towns.

Tropical Storm Josephine fizzled at sea while Kyle hit Canada's maritime provinces. (Reporting by Jim Loney, editing by Tom Brown and John O'Callaghan)
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