WASHINGTON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, has suggested he will recommend a reduction in U.S. troop numbers around March when he reports to Congress next week.

"The surge will run its course. There are limits to what our military can provide, so, my recommendations have to be informed by -- not driven by -- but they have to be informed by the strain we have put on our military services," Petraeus said.

"That has to be a key factor in what I will recommend," he told ABC News reporter Martha Raddatz in an interview at Camp Victory in Baghdad broadcast late on Tuesday.

Petraeus declined to be specific about the recommendations, which he gave to President George W. Bush during a surprise visit to Iraq on Monday.

But when asked by Raddatz if the drawdown to avoid further strain on the military would happen in March, he replied: "Your calculations are about right."

Petraeus is due to present his assessment to Congress next week along with the U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker.

ABC News quoted him as saying he is not feeling pressure from the political debate to present a rosy picture of the war.

"This is not Ambassador Crocker and Gen. Petraeus, who will decide what is to be done about Iraq. This will be a decision made at two ends of Pennsylvania Avenue," he said.

Petraeus said that while it is still very dangerous in Iraq and the insurgents remain capable of carrying out what he called barbaric attacks, he feels this summer the surge has produced an "initiative, in general, against al Qaeda, which is a change, and that is an important change."

"Eight of the past 11 weeks have seen the number of incidents, the number of attacks, come down, and to the point that they reached a level that's about the lowest in well over a year, I think," he told ABC News.

"Civilian casualties (are) still certainly too high. But again, pretty substantial progress, and certainly, trending very much in the right direction".

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