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ANALYSIS-Bush set to heed commanders, not Congress, on Iraq
10 Jul 2007 17:39:55 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Andrew Gray

WASHINGTON, July 10 (Reuters) - In making decisions about Iraq, U.S. President George W. Bush faces a choice between the views of U.S. politicians demanding change and military commanders who say their strategy needs more time.

Although he has sometimes overruled them, Bush is siding with his generals for now and some analysts believe he may be able to stick with the current strategy despite the clamor for a new direction.

"Troop levels will be decided by our commanders on the ground, and not by political figures in Washington D.C.," Bush told reporters in Parma, Ohio, on Tuesday.

The increasing number of senators from Bush's Republican Party urging a drawdown of U.S. troops concerns the administration, particularly with a report on the performance of Iraq's government due on Sunday.

The administration has made a concerted effort to play down the report's importance. But Defense Secretary Robert Gates postponed a trip to Latin America to help draft the report and meet members of Congress.

Military analyst Michael O'Hanlon said time may be on Bush's side. He noted several prominent Republicans who have called for a new policy have not backed measures that would cut war funds or impose a withdrawal timetable.

"That is a huge silver lining for the White House," said O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution think tank.

The Pentagon has stressed that the deployment of some 28,000 extra U.S. troops to Iraq -- a measure known as the surge, the centerpiece of Bush's latest strategy announced in January -- only reached full strength last month.

CLOCK-WATCHING

O'Hanlon said it was clear Bush was committed to maintaining the surge, or something close to it, even if he described it differently in an attempt to show he was sensitive to concerns in Congress and among the public.

"He'll always find some way to say the policy's evolving," O'Hanlon said, but the bottom line remained: "He is not going to be stopped by the Congress."

The top commander in Iraq, Army Gen. David Petraeus, has acknowledged his mission depends not just on events in Iraq, but also on those in the United States. He has talked of watching both a "Baghdad clock" and a "Washington clock."

The Washington clock appears to show the patience of U.S. politicians and the general public running out.

Republican Sens. Richard Lugar, George Voinovich and Pete Domenici have called for a change in Iraq policy in recent weeks. More than 60 percent of Americans say the United States should withdraw some or all of its troops, according to polls.

Many tens of thousands of Iraqis and more than 3,600 U.S. troops have died since U.S.-led forces invaded Iraq in 2003.

It is unclear if any of the measures Senate Democrats are proposing this week to force a troop drawdown can command broad support.

Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested a showdown with Congress may come with the next official update on Iraq, due in two months.

"It's probably going to take until the report by Gen. Petraeus in September to really get a decisive congressional vote," he said.
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U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Peter Pace discusses Iraq with journalists during a media roundtable at the Pentagon in Washington, July 13, 2007.



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