By Carol Giacomo, Diplomatic Correspondent

WASHINGTON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - With two years to salvage a presidency tarnished by the Iraq war, U.S. President George W. Bush is looking to his father's national security advisers for help, while ideologically driven neoconservatives and hard-liners appear to be receding.

The shift, underscored by the ouster of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, has driven speculation that Bush is moving toward a more pragmatic foreign policy after Democrats humiliated his Republican Party last week in elections dominated by voter dissatisfaction over Iraq.

But it is too early to know how extensive or sustained any such change might be.

"Bush has said repeatedly that democracy is the long-term answer to our battle with Islam. He's the big neocon. And as far as I can tell, he's still the president," said Danielle Pletka, vice president of the American Enterprise Institute, or AEI, think tank, a neoconservative base.

Arnold Kanter, undersecretary of state in the administration of former president George Bush, said: "The neocons are down but what remains to be seen is whether they are out, and whether the realists are embraced."

A "neocon" is more inclined than other conservatives to support vigorous government advocacy of morality, pro-business policies and an interventionist foreign policy. Neoconservatives such as former Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz were key architects of the Iraq war and Bush's doctrine of military pre-emption.

The current President Bush, considered a foreign-policy revolutionary by some analysts, gave clout to neoconservatives who also enjoyed the support of Vice President Dick Cheney. To many, Bush seemed more eager to identify with former President Ronald Reagan than with his father.

The elder Bush, president from 1989 to 1993, reflected a realist school of conservatism, cultivating personal ties with world leaders and working to manage the international system during the collapse of communism.

Reports of father-son tensions surfaced. In his book, "State of Denial," Bob Woodward records the senior Bush as commenting that Condoleezza Rice, his son's national security adviser and then secretary of state, was "not up to the job."

Woodward described Brent Scowcroft, the elder Bush's national security adviser and an outspoken Iraq-war critic, as disappointed with Bush officials including Cheney -- the elder Bush's defense secretary -- and Rumsfeld.

RUMSFELD OUT, GATES IN

Speculation about a shift toward realism intensified when Bush made clear in recent weeks he was looking to a study group co-chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker to find a way out of the Iraq morass.

Baker served under the first president Bush and is a longtime friend. He was also a key legal strategist in the younger Bush's victory in the disputed 2000 presidential election.

Hours after voters last week gave Democrats control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 12 years, Bush fired Rumsfeld, a hard-line conservative widely blamed for U.S. failures in Iraq. He nominated Robert Gates, the elder Bush's CIA director, to replace Rumsfeld.

Gates had been a member of the Iraq Study Group and is a friend of Baker and Scowcroft. One Republican insider said Baker suggested Gates as Rumsfeld's replacement.

Many lawmakers and experts, including Democrats, have welcomed the nomination, hailing Gates as an international realist. Bush called him an "agent of change."

One former official who knows him well predicted Gates, an advocate of dialogue with Iran and North Korea, would influence U.S. policy not only on these issues, but on China, intelligence, the war on terrorism and Mideast peace.

"I can easily imagine that Rice will see him as an ally, while Cheney (Rumsfeld's close pal) is diminished," he said.

Meanwhile, what of the neoconservatives? Mostly, they exercised clout outside government through public commentary and private advice to the administration. Of those who held prominent administration jobs, Wolfowitz went on to become World Bank president while Elliot Abrams still works for the White House.

In Vanity Fair magazine's January issue, leading neocons who led the campaign for invading Iraq -- including former Pentagon official Richard Perle -- criticize Bush's handling of the war and brand his Cabinet as dysfunctional. Perle even questioned whether the United States should have launched the war.

AlertNet news is provided by

Delicio.us  |   Digg  |   NewsVine  |   Reddit                                                                                  Permalink