(Repeats to delete extra word "is" in 6th paragraph)

By Caren Bohan

WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush holds the upper hand for now in the fight with Democrats over war funds, though that could change if grim conditions in Iraq do not improve by late summer, analysts said.

Bush has refused to negotiate with Democrats on their demand for a withdrawal date for U.S. troops and the Pentagon signaled it is open to even higher force levels through an extension of soldiers' tours.

The Democratic-led Congress, in its stand-off with the White House over attaching a timetable to a $100 billion war-spending bill, is running headlong into Bush's role as commander-in-chief.

"The president is generally given a lot of leeway with the troops," said Christopher Gelpi, political scientist at Duke University. "When push comes to shove, the Democrats have to be careful that they are not perceived as interfering with his role as commander-in-chief and undermining the troops."

Administration officials have set late summer as a possible benchmark to gauge whether 28,000 extra troops Bush has ordered to Iraq are succeeding in stemming chaos, particularly in Baghdad.

That is also a crucial time on the U.S. political calendar as candidates gear up for the 2008 election amid growing Republican fears they may face a further bruising after stinging defeats in last year's congressional races.

All three leading Republican presidential contenders, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, support Bush's Iraq policy.

But McCain, struggling with sliding poll numbers and lackluster fund raising, has been the most outspoken supporter of the troop increase and appears to have paid a price.

Some analysts compare the funding standoff to the 1995 budget battle between Democratic President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress that led to a government shutdown. Clinton emerged the victor.

"Bush is trying to use the bully pulpit of the presidency the way Clinton used it against the Republicans," said Stephen Wayne, professor of government at Georgetown University. "The difference here is that public opinion is strongly formed against the war."

PRESSURE WILL BUILD

He said pressure on Bush to shift course on Iraq will build in coming months if signs of improvement do not materialize because more Republicans, including some of the presidential candidates, may abandon him.

Eventually, this could force him to scale back the troop presence, Wayne said.

Polls show that a majority of Americans agree with Democrats that there should be a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops. Party leaders say they are carrying out the mandate from voters who elected them in November largely because their opposition to the Iraq war.

Bush has adamantly rejected a timetable and has said he will veto any legislation to pay for the war that contains one.

But Democrats could suffer political consequences if they fail to send Bush another bill he can sign, Gelpi said. That would effectively cut off money for the war, potentially setting them up to share blame if violence in Iraq spirals higher.

In pressing Democrats to drop their conditions for war funds, Bush has claimed signs of improvement in Iraq. But images of death and mayhem still dominate television screens amid chlorine attacks and a suicide bombing at the Iraq parliament on Thursday.

Retired Army Col. Paul Hughes, who advised on the initial U.S. occupation of Iraq and recently visited the country in his current role as an analyst at the U.S. Institutes of Peace, backs the troop increase but said it may be difficult to show real progress by late summer.

"It's going to take a couple of years before we see tangible results," Hughes said, but he warned that public patience is quickly wearing thin.

AlertNet news is provided by