By David Ljunggren

OTTAWA, May 15 (Reuters) - Canada's minority Conservative government is running so short of major ideas, and Parliament so mired in exchanges of personal insults, that by rights an election should be in the offing to clear the air.

Yet the weakness of the main opposition party and the persistent failure of Prime Minister Stephen Harper to boost his popularity means the government might make it all the way to October 2009, the fixed date for the next election.

The Conservatives won power in January 2006 with 36 percent of the popular vote, and senior party officials -- noting that minority governments in Canada rarely last more than 18 months -- admit they expected the government to have been brought down by Parliament by now.

This would have offered them a chance to campaign against what they say is the weak leadership of Stephane Dion, who heads the opposition Liberal Party.

The Liberals are not playing ball and have largely abstained from votes of confidence in Parliament.

"We are in no rush to have an election. It is not in our interests to do so," said one senior Dion advisor.

Faced with an emptying policy cupboard and an apparent unwillingness to unveil a new platform until election time, the Conservatives have been reduced to repackaging old pledges and inflating the importance of minor announcements.

Peter Van Loan, the minister in charge of pushing government business through Parliament, on Thursday dismissed talk Ottawa was running out of big ideas.

When pressed as to what he was focusing on, he listed bills on aboriginal rights, political loans, aeronautics, nuclear liability, Canada Post and fisheries reform -- topics that seem unlikely to overly enthuse the electorate.

Liberals say they expect Harper's popularity to drop this year on a slowing economy, a bare agenda and a number of potential scandals that have yet to catch the public's eye.

They muse about bringing down Harper in October, thereby forcing an election before an early 2009 budget that would be likely to be full of measures designed to win votes.

Van Loan noted that the Liberals often have talked about triggering an election, but have done nothing about it.

"We certainly try to give them enough opportunities to make good on their threats and they never do, so we just keep on governing," he told Reuters.

The problem for the Liberals is that there is no guarantee they would do any better at the polls later this year than at the fixed election date in 2009.

"If the political circumstances at the next election are the same as they are now, we'll win," said an aide to a senior government minister.

A Strategic Counsel public opinion survey released on Wednesday showed support for the Conservatives at 34 percent, down two percentage points from last month. The Liberals gained one point to 31 percent.

The poll -- and a raft of others over the last few months -- strongly suggest that the most likely result of an election held now would be another minority Conservative government.

"I think it would not be politically appropriate for the Liberals to bring down the government in October. What choice are they offering people right now in this country and what can they hope to achieve other than another minority?" said John Wright of polling firm Ipsos-Reid.

The bookish Dion, a native of French-speaking Quebec whose English is far from perfect, shows little sign of exciting voters and has given scant indication of his plans.

The one policy he is working on -- a possible carbon tax to be accompanied by income tax cuts -- will be a challenge to sell at a time when gasoline prices are already high.

"He's going to have to be careful how it's communicated. I think if it was the sole thing you run on, you get absolutely nailed to the cross," Wright said.

The general listlessness has spread to Parliament, where ministers often no longer bother to answer questions from the opposition and insults fly with increasing regularity.

"Try to get anything done here is like speaking Swahili to a Norwegian," said one disgruntled opposition legislator.

Wright said this might not be too upsetting for Canadians, who are paying little attention to politics.

"Canadians are incredibly content with their lives right now ... they like the fact that there's a minority government and we're not swinging from one place to another," he said. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Peter Galloway)

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