By Paul Eckert, Asia Corespondent

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The opposition leader who leads in polls ahead of Australia's Nov. 24 election has vowed to pull some troops from Iraq, but experts predict few other changes in relations if he replaces pro-U.S. Prime Minister John Howard.

Australian Labor Party leader Kevin Rudd has promised to pull combat troops out of Iraq and "to ensure that Australia once again has its own voice in the affairs of the world" -- stances designed to set him apart from Howard who maintains a close friendship with U.S. President George W. Bush.

But U.S. analysts say a Rudd victory, which would end 11 years of conservative rule, would probably not lead to a dramatic shift in an alliance forged in World War Two and formalized in a 1951 treaty.

"Generally U.S.-Australia relations are pretty solid and I don't see that changing fundamentally from the current administration to the next," said Walter Lohman, director of Asian studies at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

"There would probably be a change in tone and nuance, as the domestic debate there seems to be focusing on a need to change the way that Australia relates to the United States even if it doesn't change much of the substance of it," he said.

The most salient difference the conservative Howard and Rudd is over the 1,500 Australian troops in and around Iraq.

Howard, who was in Washington during the Sept 11 attacks and was also quick to commit to the U.S.-led war against Saddam Hussein in 2003, has promised Australian forces will remain in Iraq until it can look after its own security.

Rudd has promised to withdraw 500 combat troops from Iraq.

NOT A BOMB THROWER

A recent survey by the U.S. Studies Centre at Sydney University found 64 percent of Australians opposed their country's involvement in the Iraq war and 48 percent wanted foreign policy disentangled from U.S. interests. But 79 percent thought the U.S. alliance was important or very important.

Ralph Cossa, head of the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum CSIS, a said Rudd's claim to be speaking for Australia rather than following Bush made sense on the campaign trail.

"In reality, he's as pro-alliance as Howard is," he said.

"Australia has through previous Labor governments been a solid ally and will continue to be a solid ally. Kevin Rudd is not a bomb thrower; he's a former diplomat," said Cossa.

Asked about the possibility of an Australian pullout from Iraq, Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it was "up to the Australian people and the Australian government to make this decision."

Praising Australia as a "strong partner in Iraq and in Afghanistan," Mullen told reporters on Tuesday that "we need those kinds of partnerships." (Editing by Alan Elsner)

AlertNet news is provided by