(adds quotes, analyst comment)

By Steve Holland

HONOLULU, Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush strongly condemned the assassination of Lebanese Christian Cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel on Tuesday and U.S. officials suspected a Syrian role in the death.

The slaying of Gemayel, an outspoken critic of Syria, was another setback to the Bush administration's aspirations for stability and democracy in the Middle East.

Washington's view of Lebanon as an example of an emerging democracy in the region has already been shaken by the summer war between Israeli and Hezbollah guerrillas and the ensuing political crisis in Lebanon.

"Today we saw again the vicious face of those who oppose freedom," Bush said after meeting with U.S. troops stationed in Hawaii on his way home from a trip to Asia.

He called for a full international investigation to "identify those people and those forces behind the killing."

Bush stopped short of assigning blame to Syria and Iran for the killing, but made clear who he was thinking about. He said Washington supports Lebanon's efforts to "defend their democracy against attempts by Syria, Iran and allies to foment instability and violence in that important country."

One of the Bush administration's fears is what would happen if the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora collapses. Washington is seeking to rally "friendly" Arab nations as well as France and others to voice strong, public support for Siniora.

"Will it (the assassination) unfold into the collapse of the government? These people have shown great strength so far ... and I don't see that strength crumbling. But I can't dismiss that by accident, by design, by fear, that there could be such an outcome," said a senior administration official, who spoke on condition he was not named.

Bush was widely criticized around the world this summer for acting too slowly to lead an effort to stop Israel's war against Hezbollah in south Lebanon, which weakened the Siniora government.

U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton noted the White House had warned about two weeks ago that Syria and Iran, acting through Hezbollah, might be on the verge of an attempted coup in Lebanon.

"One has to wonder whether this despicable assassination is not the first shot," Bolton told CNN.

Asked if Syria was behind the assassination, Bolton said: "Can't say for certain, of course, but it's an interesting coincidence that eight of the last political assassinations in Lebanon have all been conducted against anti-Syrian politicians -- one can follow the logic there I think," he said.

The killing came as Bush is under some pressure to hold talks with Syria and Iran about how to halt the violence in Iraq.

Bush has always been skeptical about holding such talks, and the effort to get Washington to deal with Damascus or Tehran could now be stymied.

Bush called on the U.N. Security Council to "act today" to appoint a special tribunal to investigate the circumstances surrounding the assassination in February 2005 of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice telephoned Siniora to pass on U.S. condolences to his government over the assassination and to express support for democracy in Lebanon, the State Department said.

Middle East expert Shibley Telhami said even before the Gemayel killing the Bush administration's policy in Lebanon was in trouble.

"This is just another tragic event that highlights a troubled policy," said Telhami of the Brookings Institution.

He said the United States had pushed hard for Syrian troop withdrawal last year, but had not focused enough on how to get a strong central authority in place afterward. (Additional reporting by Matt Spetalnick and Sue Pleming)

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