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FACTBOX-U.S. intelligence predictions before Iraq war
25 May 2007 20:26:37 GMT
Source: Reuters
May 25 (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence agencies warned the Bush administration before the Iraq war that al Qaeda and Iran could exploit a U.S. invasion to expand their influence, according to a new Senate report released on Friday.

Following is a summary of the intelligence community's views on Iraq before the war, as reported by the U.S. Senate Committee on Intelligence.

- Establishing a stable democratic government in Iraq after the war would be "a long, difficult and probably turbulent challenge." However, the lack of politicization of Iraqi Shi'ism was one factor that "favored the development of democracy."

- Al Qaeda would likely boost its operations and attacks during and after a war in Iraq, though the threat "probably would decline slowly over the subsequent three to five years." Additionally, Americans overseas could become "more inviting" targets for other anti-U.S. groups.

- Iraq's neighbors would try to extend their influence into the country, including through humanitarian aid as well as provoking strife among ethnic and sectarian groups. Iran's leaders would take steps to preserve its security and show that it was an "important regional actor."

- Military action to eliminate weapons of mass destruction in Iraq would not prompt other countries in the region to give up similar programs or desires.

- Reconstruction efforts in Iraq would be aided by its large oil reserves and be an easier task than political transformation. If Iraq's oil facilities were not significantly damaged by the war, crude oil production could rise to 3.1 million barrels a day from 2.4 million barrels per day several months after the war.
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A family returns to their home in Jusk sea port, 2000 km (1240 miles) southeast of Tehran, in the wake of Cyclone Gonu June 7, 2007. Cyclone Gonu waned into a storm as it passed into a major oil shipping route toward Iran on Thursday, but killed 28 people and left a trail of destruction that halted Oman's oil and gas exports for a third day.



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